Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and German Weather Service place Munich under a transitional high-pressure regime with southerly flow on August 16, supporting peak temperatures near 30–33 °C while introducing uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up and isolated showers. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C, as modest increases in boundary-layer moisture or earlier convective initiation could cap maxima at the lower end of that range, whereas sustained clear skies would favor the upper end. Historical August climatology in southern Bavaria shows such days rarely exceed 34 °C without stronger warm advection, keeping higher outcomes thinly traded. Updated model runs and official briefings from the German Weather Service over the next 24 hours will likely refine boundary-layer and precipitation details, giving traders fresh signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 16?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?
32°C 24%
30°C 23%
31°C 15%
33°C 15%
NEW
$15,704 Vol.
NEW
$15,704 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
11%
30°C
23%
31°C
15%
32°C
24%
33°C
15%
34°C
7%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 24%
30°C 23%
31°C 15%
33°C 15%
NEW
$15,704 Vol.
NEW
$15,704 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
28°C or below
$162 Vol.
2%
29°C
$1,753 Vol.
11%
30°C
$1,132 Vol.
23%
31°C
$4,448 Vol.
15%
32°C
$2,389 Vol.
24%
33°C
$1,299 Vol.
15%
34°C
$918 Vol.
7%
35°C
$1,330 Vol.
1%
36°C
$963 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$238 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and German Weather Service place Munich under a transitional high-pressure regime with southerly flow on August 16, supporting peak temperatures near 30–33 °C while introducing uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up and isolated showers. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C, as modest increases in boundary-layer moisture or earlier convective initiation could cap maxima at the lower end of that range, whereas sustained clear skies would favor the upper end. Historical August climatology in southern Bavaria shows such days rarely exceed 34 °C without stronger warm advection, keeping higher outcomes thinly traded. Updated model runs and official briefings from the German Weather Service over the next 24 hours will likely refine boundary-layer and precipitation details, giving traders fresh signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,704End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and German Weather Service place Munich under a transitional high-pressure regime with southerly flow on August 16, supporting peak temperatures near 30–33 °C while introducing uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up and isolated showers. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C, as modest increases in boundary-layer moisture or earlier convective initiation could cap maxima at the lower end of that range, whereas sustained clear skies would favor the upper end. Historical August climatology in southern Bavaria shows such days rarely exceed 34 °C without stronger warm advection, keeping higher outcomes thinly traded. Updated model runs and official briefings from the German Weather Service over the next 24 hours will likely refine boundary-layer and precipitation details, giving traders fresh signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,704End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and German Weather Service place Munich under a transitional high-pressure regime with southerly flow on August 16, supporting peak temperatures near 30–33 °C while introducing uncertainty from afternoon cloud build-up and isolated showers. These conditions explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C, as modest increases in boundary-layer moisture or earlier convective initiation could cap maxima at the lower end of that range, whereas sustained clear skies would favor the upper end. Historical August climatology in southern Bavaria shows such days rarely exceed 34 °C without stronger warm advection, keeping higher outcomes thinly traded. Updated model runs and official briefings from the German Weather Service over the next 24 hours will likely refine boundary-layer and precipitation details, giving traders fresh signals ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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