Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate typical mid-August subtropical summer conditions, with overnight lows projected near 25–26°C amid high humidity and scattered thunderstorms. Multiple models, including extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate, converge on minimum temperatures of 25–26°C for August 15, reflecting persistent warm, moist air masses without significant frontal cooling or typhoon influence in the short term. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C as the leading outcome, followed closely by 27°C and 25°C. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging around 25°C, and current observations through mid-month show no departure from seasonal norms that would shift probabilities toward cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the 15th remain the key near-term variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 15?
26°C 41%
27°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
20%
26°C
41%
27°C
31%
28°C
7%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 41%
27°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
20°C or below
$288 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$113 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$157 Vol.
2%
24°C
$108 Vol.
6%
25°C
$472 Vol.
20%
26°C
$761 Vol.
41%
27°C
$1,180 Vol.
31%
28°C
$521 Vol.
7%
29°C
$186 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$108 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate typical mid-August subtropical summer conditions, with overnight lows projected near 25–26°C amid high humidity and scattered thunderstorms. Multiple models, including extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate, converge on minimum temperatures of 25–26°C for August 15, reflecting persistent warm, moist air masses without significant frontal cooling or typhoon influence in the short term. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C as the leading outcome, followed closely by 27°C and 25°C. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging around 25°C, and current observations through mid-month show no departure from seasonal norms that would shift probabilities toward cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the 15th remain the key near-term variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$3,936End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate typical mid-August subtropical summer conditions, with overnight lows projected near 25–26°C amid high humidity and scattered thunderstorms. Multiple models, including extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate, converge on minimum temperatures of 25–26°C for August 15, reflecting persistent warm, moist air masses without significant frontal cooling or typhoon influence in the short term. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C as the leading outcome, followed closely by 27°C and 25°C. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging around 25°C, and current observations through mid-month show no departure from seasonal norms that would shift probabilities toward cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the 15th remain the key near-term variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,936End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate typical mid-August subtropical summer conditions, with overnight lows projected near 25–26°C amid high humidity and scattered thunderstorms. Multiple models, including extended outlooks from AccuWeather and timeanddate, converge on minimum temperatures of 25–26°C for August 15, reflecting persistent warm, moist air masses without significant frontal cooling or typhoon influence in the short term. This consensus supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 26°C as the leading outcome, followed closely by 27°C and 25°C. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging around 25°C, and current observations through mid-month show no departure from seasonal norms that would shift probabilities toward cooler thresholds. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the 15th remain the key near-term variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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