Global seismicity maintains a steady background rate of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, consistent with USGS historical counts of M5–5.9 earthquakes averaging 1,500–2,000 annually. Trader consensus around 7–13 events for August 17–23 reflects this baseline alongside potential aftershocks from the recent M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia mainshocks, which can elevate counts through clustered smaller events in subduction zones. Model uncertainty arises from variable aftershock decay rates, regional tectonic loading, and the absence of widespread swarms in current monitoring data, keeping ≤6 and >13 outcomes closely matched as traders weigh quiet periods against possible sequence extensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
≤6 24%
>13 21%
8 13%
9 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
24%
7
11%
8
13%
9
12%
10
12%
11
9%
12
9%
13
9%
>13
21%
≤6 24%
>13 21%
8 13%
9 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$820 Vol.
24%
7
$117 Vol.
11%
8
$131 Vol.
13%
9
$117 Vol.
12%
10
$117 Vol.
12%
11
$117 Vol.
9%
12
$122 Vol.
9%
13
$124 Vol.
9%
>13
$356 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity maintains a steady background rate of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, consistent with USGS historical counts of M5–5.9 earthquakes averaging 1,500–2,000 annually. Trader consensus around 7–13 events for August 17–23 reflects this baseline alongside potential aftershocks from the recent M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia mainshocks, which can elevate counts through clustered smaller events in subduction zones. Model uncertainty arises from variable aftershock decay rates, regional tectonic loading, and the absence of widespread swarms in current monitoring data, keeping ≤6 and >13 outcomes closely matched as traders weigh quiet periods against possible sequence extensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,021End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity maintains a steady background rate of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, consistent with USGS historical counts of M5–5.9 earthquakes averaging 1,500–2,000 annually. Trader consensus around 7–13 events for August 17–23 reflects this baseline alongside potential aftershocks from the recent M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia mainshocks, which can elevate counts through clustered smaller events in subduction zones. Model uncertainty arises from variable aftershock decay rates, regional tectonic loading, and the absence of widespread swarms in current monitoring data, keeping ≤6 and >13 outcomes closely matched as traders weigh quiet periods against possible sequence extensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$2,021End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity maintains a steady background rate of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, consistent with USGS historical counts of M5–5.9 earthquakes averaging 1,500–2,000 annually. Trader consensus around 7–13 events for August 17–23 reflects this baseline alongside potential aftershocks from the recent M7.4 Colombia and M7.7 Indonesia mainshocks, which can elevate counts through clustered smaller events in subduction zones. Model uncertainty arises from variable aftershock decay rates, regional tectonic loading, and the absence of widespread swarms in current monitoring data, keeping ≤6 and >13 outcomes closely matched as traders weigh quiet periods against possible sequence extensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
70%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
42%
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
42%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions