Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability, with USGS records showing typical counts of six to fourteen M5.5+ earthquakes worldwide. Trader consensus favoring lower outcomes around six or seven reflects the absence of major ongoing aftershock sequences following recent events such as the M6.8 Kumamoto quake and M6.3 Philippines tremor, alongside normal fluctuations in subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Higher counts above thirteen would require clustered large events or triggered seismicity, which remains statistically uncommon absent fresh M6+ triggers. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude thresholds and timing within the exact seven-day window, with model consensus limited by the inherent unpredictability of fault rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
≤6 28%
7 12%
8 12%
9 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
28%
7
12%
8
12%
9
11%
10
10%
11
8%
12
7%
13
6%
>13
11%
≤6 28%
7 12%
8 12%
9 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$276 Vol.
28%
7
$127 Vol.
12%
8
$51 Vol.
12%
9
$65 Vol.
11%
10
$101 Vol.
10%
11
$50 Vol.
8%
12
$65 Vol.
7%
13
$20 Vol.
6%
>13
$88 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability, with USGS records showing typical counts of six to fourteen M5.5+ earthquakes worldwide. Trader consensus favoring lower outcomes around six or seven reflects the absence of major ongoing aftershock sequences following recent events such as the M6.8 Kumamoto quake and M6.3 Philippines tremor, alongside normal fluctuations in subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Higher counts above thirteen would require clustered large events or triggered seismicity, which remains statistically uncommon absent fresh M6+ triggers. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude thresholds and timing within the exact seven-day window, with model consensus limited by the inherent unpredictability of fault rupture.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$843End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability, with USGS records showing typical counts of six to fourteen M5.5+ earthquakes worldwide. Trader consensus favoring lower outcomes around six or seven reflects the absence of major ongoing aftershock sequences following recent events such as the M6.8 Kumamoto quake and M6.3 Philippines tremor, alongside normal fluctuations in subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Higher counts above thirteen would require clustered large events or triggered seismicity, which remains statistically uncommon absent fresh M6+ triggers. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude thresholds and timing within the exact seven-day window, with model consensus limited by the inherent unpredictability of fault rupture.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$843End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability, with USGS records showing typical counts of six to fourteen M5.5+ earthquakes worldwide. Trader consensus favoring lower outcomes around six or seven reflects the absence of major ongoing aftershock sequences following recent events such as the M6.8 Kumamoto quake and M6.3 Philippines tremor, alongside normal fluctuations in subduction-zone activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Higher counts above thirteen would require clustered large events or triggered seismicity, which remains statistically uncommon absent fresh M6+ triggers. Resolution hinges on official USGS magnitude thresholds and timing within the exact seven-day window, with model consensus limited by the inherent unpredictability of fault rupture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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