The market-implied odds reflect traders' recognition of overwhelming scientific consensus and empirical evidence from satellite imagery, physics experiments, and centuries of global exploration that have long established Earth's spherical shape. This near-certain 99.3% probability on "No" stems from the theory's fringe status in mainstream culture, where it persists mainly as internet memes and entertainment fodder rather than credible debate. Historical precedents like ancient Greek calculations and modern space missions reinforce the dominant narrative, leaving little room for shifts. Realistic upset scenarios remain highly improbable, though a hypothetical large-scale hoax or unprecedented new data could theoretically test the market's resolution criteria.