NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone development, with updated projections of just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, aligning with climatological expectations for reduced activity. Historical data show Category 4 landfalls in the U.S. are infrequent even in average seasons, and the current model consensus plus low accumulated cyclone energy to date reinforce trader sentiment favoring no such event before 2027. Updated seasonal outlooks in coming weeks could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$340,136 Vol.
$340,136 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone development, with updated projections of just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, aligning with climatological expectations for reduced activity. Historical data show Category 4 landfalls in the U.S. are infrequent even in average seasons, and the current model consensus plus low accumulated cyclone energy to date reinforce trader sentiment favoring no such event before 2027. Updated seasonal outlooks in coming weeks could refine these probabilities.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,136End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone development, with updated projections of just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, aligning with climatological expectations for reduced activity. Historical data show Category 4 landfalls in the U.S. are infrequent even in average seasons, and the current model consensus plus low accumulated cyclone energy to date reinforce trader sentiment favoring no such event before 2027. Updated seasonal outlooks in coming weeks could refine these probabilities.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,136End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts indicate a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone development, with updated projections of just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale). As of mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed, none reaching hurricane strength, aligning with climatological expectations for reduced activity. Historical data show Category 4 landfalls in the U.S. are infrequent even in average seasons, and the current model consensus plus low accumulated cyclone energy to date reinforce trader sentiment favoring no such event before 2027. Updated seasonal outlooks in coming weeks could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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