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Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

icon for Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%

4.6-4.8m sq km 27.1%

4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%

4.0-4.2m sq km 20.6%

Polymarket

$66,635 Vol.

4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%

4.6-4.8m sq km 27.1%

4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%

4.0-4.2m sq km 20.6%

Polymarket

$66,635 Vol.

<4m sq km

$30,295 Vol.

12%

4.0-4.2m sq km

$6,497 Vol.

21%

4.2-4.4m sq km

$2,846 Vol.

24%

4.4-4.6m sq km

$3,047 Vol.

28%

4.6-4.8m sq km

$6,757 Vol.

27%

4.8-5m sq km

$2,809 Vol.

3%

5m+ sq km

$14,385 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus centers on a 2026 minimum Arctic sea ice extent between 4.2–4.8 million square kilometers, with the narrowest bins near 4.4–4.6 holding the highest implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in March, combined with persistent Arctic amplification that has produced below-average extent throughout 2026. Official monitoring shows continued melt through August amid elevated sea-surface temperatures, yet the precise September outcome hinges on remaining summer weather patterns, including cyclone activity and atmospheric circulation that can accelerate or slow ice loss. Model projections cluster near 4.5 million square kilometers, but inherent variability in melt-season forcing keeps adjacent bins competitive until National Snow and Ice Data Center observations finalize the minimum.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$66,635
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus centers on a 2026 minimum Arctic sea ice extent between 4.2–4.8 million square kilometers, with the narrowest bins near 4.4–4.6 holding the highest implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached in March, combined with persistent Arctic amplification that has produced below-average extent throughout 2026. Official monitoring shows continued melt through August amid elevated sea-surface temperatures, yet the precise September outcome hinges on remaining summer weather patterns, including cyclone activity and atmospheric circulation that can accelerate or slow ice loss. Model projections cluster near 4.5 million square kilometers, but inherent variability in melt-season forcing keeps adjacent bins competitive until National Snow and Ice Data Center observations finalize the minimum.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$66,635
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 28%, followed by "4.6-4.8m sq km" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" has generated $66.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.6-4.8m sq km" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.