Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 42%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.8%
5m+ sq km 4.9%
$57,887 交易量
$57,887 交易量
2026-10-01
<4m sq km
42%
4.0-4.2m sq km
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
5%
<4m sq km 42%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.8%
5m+ sq km 4.9%
$57,887 交易量
$57,887 交易量
2026-10-01
<4m sq km
$28,328 交易量
42%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$5,292 交易量
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,020 交易量
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$2,187 交易量
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$3,909 交易量
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,178 交易量
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,974 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$57,887结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$57,887结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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