Recent model consensus and persistent Gulf moisture are anchoring trader views near the 73°F threshold for Houston’s October 1 minimum, with southerly flow and 70-80% storm chances expected to limit overnight radiational cooling. High dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, combined with cloud cover and possible showers, should suppress typical cooling rates, keeping the low close to or slightly above the long-term 68°F average for the date. Warmer-than-normal September conditions and an active subtropical pattern have maintained elevated temperatures, creating a narrow window between sub-74°F and mid-70s outcomes. Final NWS and private-model updates over the next 48 hours will determine whether any late-day clearing allows a dip to 73°F or below.