**Recent precipitation patterns prevented Virginia from reaching D4 (Exceptional Drought) by the August 31, 2026 deadline, supporting the market's 100% "No" consensus.** Statewide data show August 2026 ranked as the 60th wettest on record, delivering near-normal rainfall that improved soil moisture and streamflows across much of the state even as deeper groundwater remained below the 10th percentile in some wells. The January–August period ranked only the 19th driest historically, producing at most isolated D3 (Extreme Drought) covering under 4% of Virginia and zero D4 area on U.S. Drought Monitor maps through early September. D4 classification on the U.S. Drought Monitor requires widespread, multi-month precipitation deficits severe enough to drive exceptional impacts on agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems—conditions not met here despite earlier advisories and localized dryness. Official monitoring from the National Drought Mitigation Center and Virginia DEQ confirmed the absence of any weekly release meeting the 1%+ D4 threshold through the resolution window. While a sudden, multi-week dry spell in late August could theoretically have intensified pockets toward exceptional levels, observed rainfall and model trends made that outcome improbable. The high bar for D4, combined with timely late-summer moisture, produced the near-certain trader alignment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
<1% chance
$4,343 Vol.
$4,343 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$4,343 Vol.
$4,343 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Virginia published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.**Recent precipitation patterns prevented Virginia from reaching D4 (Exceptional Drought) by the August 31, 2026 deadline, supporting the market's 100% "No" consensus.** Statewide data show August 2026 ranked as the 60th wettest on record, delivering near-normal rainfall that improved soil moisture and streamflows across much of the state even as deeper groundwater remained below the 10th percentile in some wells. The January–August period ranked only the 19th driest historically, producing at most isolated D3 (Extreme Drought) covering under 4% of Virginia and zero D4 area on U.S. Drought Monitor maps through early September.
D4 classification on the U.S. Drought Monitor requires widespread, multi-month precipitation deficits severe enough to drive exceptional impacts on agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems—conditions not met here despite earlier advisories and localized dryness. Official monitoring from the National Drought Mitigation Center and Virginia DEQ confirmed the absence of any weekly release meeting the 1%+ D4 threshold through the resolution window.
While a sudden, multi-week dry spell in late August could theoretically have intensified pockets toward exceptional levels, observed rainfall and model trends made that outcome improbable. The high bar for D4, combined with timely late-summer moisture, produced the near-certain trader alignment.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Virginia published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$4,343End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Virginia published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.**Recent precipitation patterns prevented Virginia from reaching D4 (Exceptional Drought) by the August 31, 2026 deadline, supporting the market's 100% "No" consensus.** Statewide data show August 2026 ranked as the 60th wettest on record, delivering near-normal rainfall that improved soil moisture and streamflows across much of the state even as deeper groundwater remained below the 10th percentile in some wells. The January–August period ranked only the 19th driest historically, producing at most isolated D3 (Extreme Drought) covering under 4% of Virginia and zero D4 area on U.S. Drought Monitor maps through early September.
D4 classification on the U.S. Drought Monitor requires widespread, multi-month precipitation deficits severe enough to drive exceptional impacts on agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems—conditions not met here despite earlier advisories and localized dryness. Official monitoring from the National Drought Mitigation Center and Virginia DEQ confirmed the absence of any weekly release meeting the 1%+ D4 threshold through the resolution window.
While a sudden, multi-week dry spell in late August could theoretically have intensified pockets toward exceptional levels, observed rainfall and model trends made that outcome improbable. The high bar for D4, combined with timely late-summer moisture, produced the near-certain trader alignment.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Virginia published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Virginia" means the entire State of Virginia as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Volume
$4,343End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent precipitation patterns prevented Virginia from reaching D4 (Exceptional Drought) by the August 31, 2026 deadline, supporting the market's 100% "No" consensus.** Statewide data show August 2026 ranked as the 60th wettest on record, delivering near-normal rainfall that improved soil moisture and streamflows across much of the state even as deeper groundwater remained below the 10th percentile in some wells. The January–August period ranked only the 19th driest historically, producing at most isolated D3 (Extreme Drought) covering under 4% of Virginia and zero D4 area on U.S. Drought Monitor maps through early September. D4 classification on the U.S. Drought Monitor requires widespread, multi-month precipitation deficits severe enough to drive exceptional impacts on agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems—conditions not met here despite earlier advisories and localized dryness. Official monitoring from the National Drought Mitigation Center and Virginia DEQ confirmed the absence of any weekly release meeting the 1%+ D4 threshold through the resolution window. While a sudden, multi-week dry spell in late August could theoretically have intensified pockets toward exceptional levels, observed rainfall and model trends made that outcome improbable. The high bar for D4, combined with timely late-summer moisture, produced the near-certain trader alignment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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