**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 16 point to a highest temperature centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (42%), 24°C (19.5%), and 26°C (19%).** Persistent rain and cloud cover from an active weather system are suppressing daytime heating, with current conditions on September 14 showing highs near 23°C amid showers. Official and ensemble models (including those referenced by Yr, AccuWeather, and local Chinese meteorological sources) indicate continued mostly cloudy skies with showers on the 16th, limiting solar radiation and keeping the daily maximum around 23–26°C rather than allowing rebound toward the long-term September average of ~25–26°C. Key drivers include light northerly or variable winds, high humidity (often 80%+), and precipitation probabilities of 70–80%, which favor modest highs without strong diurnal warming. This wetter pattern follows several days of rain that have already cooled the region below seasonal norms. While some model runs allow for a brief clearing that could push toward 26°C, the consensus favors 24–25°C as the most likely peak, explaining the tight clustering of implied probabilities around those values and the low odds on 27°C+ or sub-23°C extremes. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine the exact maximum, but current atmospheric conditions support the market's central tendency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 16?
25°C 41%
24°C 24%
26°C 16%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
24%
25°C
41%
26°C
16%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
2%
25°C 41%
24°C 24%
26°C 16%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$331 Vol.
1%
19°C
$313 Vol.
1%
20°C
$334 Vol.
2%
21°C
$106 Vol.
2%
22°C
$242 Vol.
4%
23°C
$155 Vol.
10%
24°C
$254 Vol.
24%
25°C
$1,098 Vol.
41%
26°C
$505 Vol.
16%
27°C
$422 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$155 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 16 point to a highest temperature centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (42%), 24°C (19.5%), and 26°C (19%).** Persistent rain and cloud cover from an active weather system are suppressing daytime heating, with current conditions on September 14 showing highs near 23°C amid showers. Official and ensemble models (including those referenced by Yr, AccuWeather, and local Chinese meteorological sources) indicate continued mostly cloudy skies with showers on the 16th, limiting solar radiation and keeping the daily maximum around 23–26°C rather than allowing rebound toward the long-term September average of ~25–26°C.
Key drivers include light northerly or variable winds, high humidity (often 80%+), and precipitation probabilities of 70–80%, which favor modest highs without strong diurnal warming. This wetter pattern follows several days of rain that have already cooled the region below seasonal norms. While some model runs allow for a brief clearing that could push toward 26°C, the consensus favors 24–25°C as the most likely peak, explaining the tight clustering of implied probabilities around those values and the low odds on 27°C+ or sub-23°C extremes. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine the exact maximum, but current atmospheric conditions support the market's central tendency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,914End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 16 point to a highest temperature centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (42%), 24°C (19.5%), and 26°C (19%).** Persistent rain and cloud cover from an active weather system are suppressing daytime heating, with current conditions on September 14 showing highs near 23°C amid showers. Official and ensemble models (including those referenced by Yr, AccuWeather, and local Chinese meteorological sources) indicate continued mostly cloudy skies with showers on the 16th, limiting solar radiation and keeping the daily maximum around 23–26°C rather than allowing rebound toward the long-term September average of ~25–26°C.
Key drivers include light northerly or variable winds, high humidity (often 80%+), and precipitation probabilities of 70–80%, which favor modest highs without strong diurnal warming. This wetter pattern follows several days of rain that have already cooled the region below seasonal norms. While some model runs allow for a brief clearing that could push toward 26°C, the consensus favors 24–25°C as the most likely peak, explaining the tight clustering of implied probabilities around those values and the low odds on 27°C+ or sub-23°C extremes. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine the exact maximum, but current atmospheric conditions support the market's central tendency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,914End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Chengdu on September 16 point to a highest temperature centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (42%), 24°C (19.5%), and 26°C (19%).** Persistent rain and cloud cover from an active weather system are suppressing daytime heating, with current conditions on September 14 showing highs near 23°C amid showers. Official and ensemble models (including those referenced by Yr, AccuWeather, and local Chinese meteorological sources) indicate continued mostly cloudy skies with showers on the 16th, limiting solar radiation and keeping the daily maximum around 23–26°C rather than allowing rebound toward the long-term September average of ~25–26°C. Key drivers include light northerly or variable winds, high humidity (often 80%+), and precipitation probabilities of 70–80%, which favor modest highs without strong diurnal warming. This wetter pattern follows several days of rain that have already cooled the region below seasonal norms. While some model runs allow for a brief clearing that could push toward 26°C, the consensus favors 24–25°C as the most likely peak, explaining the tight clustering of implied probabilities around those values and the low odds on 27°C+ or sub-23°C extremes. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine the exact maximum, but current atmospheric conditions support the market's central tendency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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