Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and light easterly winds over Buenos Aires on September 16, promoting radiational cooling and an overnight minimum near 5–7 °C at official stations. This baseline supports the tight market split between 2 °C and 3 °C outcomes, with traders weighing subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of the daily minimum against historical September climatology. Updated model runs showing slightly drier air have kept implied probabilities nearly even while capping the chance of sub-2 °C readings at 11 %. Next National Meteorological Service observations and any final model adjustments before midnight local time remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 16?
2°C 46%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
55%
2°C
46%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C or higher
<1%
2°C 46%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
1°C or below
$319 Vol.
55%
2°C
$0 Vol.
46%
3°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$357 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$58 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
11°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and light easterly winds over Buenos Aires on September 16, promoting radiational cooling and an overnight minimum near 5–7 °C at official stations. This baseline supports the tight market split between 2 °C and 3 °C outcomes, with traders weighing subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of the daily minimum against historical September climatology. Updated model runs showing slightly drier air have kept implied probabilities nearly even while capping the chance of sub-2 °C readings at 11 %. Next National Meteorological Service observations and any final model adjustments before midnight local time remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,109End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and light easterly winds over Buenos Aires on September 16, promoting radiational cooling and an overnight minimum near 5–7 °C at official stations. This baseline supports the tight market split between 2 °C and 3 °C outcomes, with traders weighing subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of the daily minimum against historical September climatology. Updated model runs showing slightly drier air have kept implied probabilities nearly even while capping the chance of sub-2 °C readings at 11 %. Next National Meteorological Service observations and any final model adjustments before midnight local time remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,109End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates clear skies and light easterly winds over Buenos Aires on September 16, promoting radiational cooling and an overnight minimum near 5–7 °C at official stations. This baseline supports the tight market split between 2 °C and 3 °C outcomes, with traders weighing subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture, urban heat-island effects, and exact timing of the daily minimum against historical September climatology. Updated model runs showing slightly drier air have kept implied probabilities nearly even while capping the chance of sub-2 °C readings at 11 %. Next National Meteorological Service observations and any final model adjustments before midnight local time remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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