**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service point to mostly sunny conditions on September 18, 2026, with light east to southeast winds of 5–10 mph supporting efficient daytime heating and highs clustering in the low-to-mid 90s.** This setup follows scattered storms on September 17 that cleared overnight, removing cloud cover and allowing stronger insolation under high pressure. Dew points in the mid-70s will drive heat indices above 100°F, but the dry air mass and lack of significant moisture advection or frontal boundaries limit extreme outliers. Historical mid-September normals near 89°F provide context, yet recent model consensus favors readings a few degrees above average due to the stable, clear pattern. Traders have priced the 94–95°F bin highest because ensemble guidance and short-range forecasts align there, with modest probabilities on adjacent bins reflecting typical forecast spread and minor model differences in peak timing or local effects. Upcoming NWS updates and any last-minute satellite trends could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 18?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 18?
94-95°F 52%
92-93°F 40%
96-97°F 7%
90-91°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
40%
94-95°F
52%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
2%
100°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 52%
92-93°F 40%
96-97°F 7%
90-91°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
81°F or below
$591 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$531 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$121 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$41 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$7 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$1,904 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$2,178 Vol.
40%
94-95°F
$2,008 Vol.
52%
96-97°F
$161 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
2%
100°F or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service point to mostly sunny conditions on September 18, 2026, with light east to southeast winds of 5–10 mph supporting efficient daytime heating and highs clustering in the low-to-mid 90s.**
This setup follows scattered storms on September 17 that cleared overnight, removing cloud cover and allowing stronger insolation under high pressure. Dew points in the mid-70s will drive heat indices above 100°F, but the dry air mass and lack of significant moisture advection or frontal boundaries limit extreme outliers. Historical mid-September normals near 89°F provide context, yet recent model consensus favors readings a few degrees above average due to the stable, clear pattern.
Traders have priced the 94–95°F bin highest because ensemble guidance and short-range forecasts align there, with modest probabilities on adjacent bins reflecting typical forecast spread and minor model differences in peak timing or local effects. Upcoming NWS updates and any last-minute satellite trends could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,608End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service point to mostly sunny conditions on September 18, 2026, with light east to southeast winds of 5–10 mph supporting efficient daytime heating and highs clustering in the low-to-mid 90s.**
This setup follows scattered storms on September 17 that cleared overnight, removing cloud cover and allowing stronger insolation under high pressure. Dew points in the mid-70s will drive heat indices above 100°F, but the dry air mass and lack of significant moisture advection or frontal boundaries limit extreme outliers. Historical mid-September normals near 89°F provide context, yet recent model consensus favors readings a few degrees above average due to the stable, clear pattern.
Traders have priced the 94–95°F bin highest because ensemble guidance and short-range forecasts align there, with modest probabilities on adjacent bins reflecting typical forecast spread and minor model differences in peak timing or local effects. Upcoming NWS updates and any last-minute satellite trends could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,608End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service point to mostly sunny conditions on September 18, 2026, with light east to southeast winds of 5–10 mph supporting efficient daytime heating and highs clustering in the low-to-mid 90s.** This setup follows scattered storms on September 17 that cleared overnight, removing cloud cover and allowing stronger insolation under high pressure. Dew points in the mid-70s will drive heat indices above 100°F, but the dry air mass and lack of significant moisture advection or frontal boundaries limit extreme outliers. Historical mid-September normals near 89°F provide context, yet recent model consensus favors readings a few degrees above average due to the stable, clear pattern. Traders have priced the 94–95°F bin highest because ensemble guidance and short-range forecasts align there, with modest probabilities on adjacent bins reflecting typical forecast spread and minor model differences in peak timing or local effects. Upcoming NWS updates and any last-minute satellite trends could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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