Trader consensus has converged on a 15°C maximum in Wellington on September 17 because official observations from MetService and airport stations recorded a daytime peak of exactly 15°C (59°F) under southerly flow with rain and gusty winds near 20–30 km/h. This aligns with GFS and ECMWF model guidance showing limited insolation due to persistent cloud cover and a cool marine airmass, keeping values within the typical mid-September range of 12–15°C. Near-100% implied probability reflects real-time station data closing the market window. A later unverified spike above 15°C or a station-specific discrepancy could theoretically alter resolution, though post-event verification by meteorological agencies makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 17?
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$57,344 Vol.
$57,344 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$57,344 Vol.
$57,344 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
9°C or below
$261 Vol.
No
10°C
$194 Vol.
No
11°C
$449 Vol.
No
12°C
$8,153 Vol.
No
13°C
$10,169 Vol.
No
14°C
$19,602 Vol.
No
15°C
$11,415 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$5,141 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,067 Vol.
No
18°C
$494 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$399 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 15°C maximum in Wellington on September 17 because official observations from MetService and airport stations recorded a daytime peak of exactly 15°C (59°F) under southerly flow with rain and gusty winds near 20–30 km/h. This aligns with GFS and ECMWF model guidance showing limited insolation due to persistent cloud cover and a cool marine airmass, keeping values within the typical mid-September range of 12–15°C. Near-100% implied probability reflects real-time station data closing the market window. A later unverified spike above 15°C or a station-specific discrepancy could theoretically alter resolution, though post-event verification by meteorological agencies makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$57,344End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 15°C maximum in Wellington on September 17 because official observations from MetService and airport stations recorded a daytime peak of exactly 15°C (59°F) under southerly flow with rain and gusty winds near 20–30 km/h. This aligns with GFS and ECMWF model guidance showing limited insolation due to persistent cloud cover and a cool marine airmass, keeping values within the typical mid-September range of 12–15°C. Near-100% implied probability reflects real-time station data closing the market window. A later unverified spike above 15°C or a station-specific discrepancy could theoretically alter resolution, though post-event verification by meteorological agencies makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,344End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has converged on a 15°C maximum in Wellington on September 17 because official observations from MetService and airport stations recorded a daytime peak of exactly 15°C (59°F) under southerly flow with rain and gusty winds near 20–30 km/h. This aligns with GFS and ECMWF model guidance showing limited insolation due to persistent cloud cover and a cool marine airmass, keeping values within the typical mid-September range of 12–15°C. Near-100% implied probability reflects real-time station data closing the market window. A later unverified spike above 15°C or a station-specific discrepancy could theoretically alter resolution, though post-event verification by meteorological agencies makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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