**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles indicate a high of 27–30°C in Beijing on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 28–29°C.** Light rain or showers early in the period, transitioning to cloudy skies under southeast-to-east winds under 3 levels, are expected to cap afternoon heating, while surface pressures near 1010–1015 hPa and moderate humidity (60–70%) support this range. Recent model runs show a modest cooling trend from the 29–32°C highs recorded on September 16–17, consistent with seasonal progression into mid-September and the influence of a weak frontal boundary. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, plus typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C, keeps 27°C and 30°C viable secondary outcomes while rendering extremes below 26°C or above 31°C highly improbable given current steering patterns and climatological baselines for the date. Updated CMA and numerical weather prediction guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
29°C 38%
28°C 27%
30°C 19%
27°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
15%
28°C
27%
29°C
38%
30°C
19%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 38%
28°C 27%
30°C 19%
27°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
23°C or below
$279 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$322 Vol.
1%
26°C
$369 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,033 Vol.
15%
28°C
$931 Vol.
27%
29°C
$1,125 Vol.
38%
30°C
$767 Vol.
19%
31°C
$296 Vol.
5%
32°C
$308 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles indicate a high of 27–30°C in Beijing on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 28–29°C.**
Light rain or showers early in the period, transitioning to cloudy skies under southeast-to-east winds under 3 levels, are expected to cap afternoon heating, while surface pressures near 1010–1015 hPa and moderate humidity (60–70%) support this range. Recent model runs show a modest cooling trend from the 29–32°C highs recorded on September 16–17, consistent with seasonal progression into mid-September and the influence of a weak frontal boundary.
Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, plus typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C, keeps 27°C and 30°C viable secondary outcomes while rendering extremes below 26°C or above 31°C highly improbable given current steering patterns and climatological baselines for the date. Updated CMA and numerical weather prediction guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,947End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles indicate a high of 27–30°C in Beijing on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 28–29°C.**
Light rain or showers early in the period, transitioning to cloudy skies under southeast-to-east winds under 3 levels, are expected to cap afternoon heating, while surface pressures near 1010–1015 hPa and moderate humidity (60–70%) support this range. Recent model runs show a modest cooling trend from the 29–32°C highs recorded on September 16–17, consistent with seasonal progression into mid-September and the influence of a weak frontal boundary.
Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, plus typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C, keeps 27°C and 30°C viable secondary outcomes while rendering extremes below 26°C or above 31°C highly improbable given current steering patterns and climatological baselines for the date. Updated CMA and numerical weather prediction guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,947End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles indicate a high of 27–30°C in Beijing on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 28–29°C.** Light rain or showers early in the period, transitioning to cloudy skies under southeast-to-east winds under 3 levels, are expected to cap afternoon heating, while surface pressures near 1010–1015 hPa and moderate humidity (60–70%) support this range. Recent model runs show a modest cooling trend from the 29–32°C highs recorded on September 16–17, consistent with seasonal progression into mid-September and the influence of a weak frontal boundary. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, plus typical ensemble spread of 1–2°C, keeps 27°C and 30°C viable secondary outcomes while rendering extremes below 26°C or above 31°C highly improbable given current steering patterns and climatological baselines for the date. Updated CMA and numerical weather prediction guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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