Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and multiple models indicate a low of 18–19°C for Beijing on September 18, driven by a weak cold front and light rain transitioning to cloudy conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September and positions 19–20°C as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5–58% probability. Traders appear to weigh consensus model runs showing overnight lows near 19°C against minor uncertainties in urban heat island effects or exact station readings, with lower probabilities assigned to 18°C or below reflecting the current steering pattern and lack of stronger northerly flow. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
19°C 48%
17°C 10%
16°C 6%
14°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
6%
17°C
10%
18°C
46%
19°C
48%
20°C
58%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 48%
17°C 10%
16°C 6%
14°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
$16 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
6%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$63 Vol.
46%
19°C
$3 Vol.
48%
20°C
$90 Vol.
58%
21°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and multiple models indicate a low of 18–19°C for Beijing on September 18, driven by a weak cold front and light rain transitioning to cloudy conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September and positions 19–20°C as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5–58% probability. Traders appear to weigh consensus model runs showing overnight lows near 19°C against minor uncertainties in urban heat island effects or exact station readings, with lower probabilities assigned to 18°C or below reflecting the current steering pattern and lack of stronger northerly flow. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$296End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and multiple models indicate a low of 18–19°C for Beijing on September 18, driven by a weak cold front and light rain transitioning to cloudy conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September and positions 19–20°C as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5–58% probability. Traders appear to weigh consensus model runs showing overnight lows near 19°C against minor uncertainties in urban heat island effects or exact station readings, with lower probabilities assigned to 18°C or below reflecting the current steering pattern and lack of stronger northerly flow. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$296End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and multiple models indicate a low of 18–19°C for Beijing on September 18, driven by a weak cold front and light rain transitioning to cloudy conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September and positions 19–20°C as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5–58% probability. Traders appear to weigh consensus model runs showing overnight lows near 19°C against minor uncertainties in urban heat island effects or exact station readings, with lower probabilities assigned to 18°C or below reflecting the current steering pattern and lack of stronger northerly flow. Updated model guidance later today could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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