Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a Thursday high near 98°F in Austin amid building easterly moisture, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms after 1 p.m. that could cap peak heating. This narrow range of outcomes—centered on upper-90s readings—explains the tight market split between 96-97°F and 98-99°F bins, as traders weigh boundary-layer mixing, storm timing, and any early convective cooling against persistent high pressure keeping conditions well above the late-summer climatological average of 90.7°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will likely refine these probabilities ahead of official daily maximum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 17?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 17?
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 35%
94-95°F 18%
92-93°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
8%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
37%
98-99°F
35%
100-101°F
8%
102-103°F
2%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 37%
98-99°F 35%
94-95°F 18%
92-93°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
85°F or below
$100 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$8 Vol.
8%
94-95°F
$96 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$82 Vol.
37%
98-99°F
$135 Vol.
35%
100-101°F
$168 Vol.
8%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
2%
104°F or higher
$684 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a Thursday high near 98°F in Austin amid building easterly moisture, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms after 1 p.m. that could cap peak heating. This narrow range of outcomes—centered on upper-90s readings—explains the tight market split between 96-97°F and 98-99°F bins, as traders weigh boundary-layer mixing, storm timing, and any early convective cooling against persistent high pressure keeping conditions well above the late-summer climatological average of 90.7°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will likely refine these probabilities ahead of official daily maximum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,271End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a Thursday high near 98°F in Austin amid building easterly moisture, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms after 1 p.m. that could cap peak heating. This narrow range of outcomes—centered on upper-90s readings—explains the tight market split between 96-97°F and 98-99°F bins, as traders weigh boundary-layer mixing, storm timing, and any early convective cooling against persistent high pressure keeping conditions well above the late-summer climatological average of 90.7°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will likely refine these probabilities ahead of official daily maximum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,271End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a Thursday high near 98°F in Austin amid building easterly moisture, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms after 1 p.m. that could cap peak heating. This narrow range of outcomes—centered on upper-90s readings—explains the tight market split between 96-97°F and 98-99°F bins, as traders weigh boundary-layer mixing, storm timing, and any early convective cooling against persistent high pressure keeping conditions well above the late-summer climatological average of 90.7°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will likely refine these probabilities ahead of official daily maximum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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