Recent National Weather Service and model consensus, including WeatherBug guidance, points to mostly sunny skies with southeasterly flow supporting a Houston high in the mid-90s on September 15, 2026, as the key driver behind 94-95°F emerging as the clear market leader. Afternoon convection and elevated humidity may limit peak readings, while heat indices near 107°F reflect the underlying warm, moist air mass. This exceeds the long-term September 15 average of roughly 88°F, though any earlier thunderstorm development could trim the daily maximum toward the 92-93°F range. Updated model runs and local NWS briefings in the next 12-24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 15?
94-95°F 65%
92-93°F 22%
96-97°F 13%
90-91°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
22%
94-95°F
65%
96-97°F
13%
98-99°F
3%
100-101°F
2%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 65%
92-93°F 22%
96-97°F 13%
90-91°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
85°F or below
$283 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$87 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$317 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$724 Vol.
22%
94-95°F
$1,838 Vol.
65%
96-97°F
$485 Vol.
13%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
3%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
2%
102-103°F
$360 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$328 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus, including WeatherBug guidance, points to mostly sunny skies with southeasterly flow supporting a Houston high in the mid-90s on September 15, 2026, as the key driver behind 94-95°F emerging as the clear market leader. Afternoon convection and elevated humidity may limit peak readings, while heat indices near 107°F reflect the underlying warm, moist air mass. This exceeds the long-term September 15 average of roughly 88°F, though any earlier thunderstorm development could trim the daily maximum toward the 92-93°F range. Updated model runs and local NWS briefings in the next 12-24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$4,404End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus, including WeatherBug guidance, points to mostly sunny skies with southeasterly flow supporting a Houston high in the mid-90s on September 15, 2026, as the key driver behind 94-95°F emerging as the clear market leader. Afternoon convection and elevated humidity may limit peak readings, while heat indices near 107°F reflect the underlying warm, moist air mass. This exceeds the long-term September 15 average of roughly 88°F, though any earlier thunderstorm development could trim the daily maximum toward the 92-93°F range. Updated model runs and local NWS briefings in the next 12-24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,404End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model consensus, including WeatherBug guidance, points to mostly sunny skies with southeasterly flow supporting a Houston high in the mid-90s on September 15, 2026, as the key driver behind 94-95°F emerging as the clear market leader. Afternoon convection and elevated humidity may limit peak readings, while heat indices near 107°F reflect the underlying warm, moist air mass. This exceeds the long-term September 15 average of roughly 88°F, though any earlier thunderstorm development could trim the daily maximum toward the 92-93°F range. Updated model runs and local NWS briefings in the next 12-24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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