Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to overnight lows in the upper 70s for Houston on September 15, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and persistent southeast flow off the Gulf that limits nocturnal cooling and maintains high dew points near 75°F. This pattern has produced above-normal minimum temperatures across the past week, with heat indices exceeding 105°F during the day and little evidence of an approaching frontal boundary that could drop readings toward the historical mid-September average of 72–73°F. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between sub-72°F and 90°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, or boundary-layer mixing could alter the exact minimum by several degrees, while the 76–79°F range carries the next-highest implied probability as the most consistent model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 15?
71°F or below 97%
90°F or higher 97%
78-79°F 44%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
71°F or below
97%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
97%
71°F or below 97%
90°F or higher 97%
78-79°F 44%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
97%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$15 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
39%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
39%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to overnight lows in the upper 70s for Houston on September 15, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and persistent southeast flow off the Gulf that limits nocturnal cooling and maintains high dew points near 75°F. This pattern has produced above-normal minimum temperatures across the past week, with heat indices exceeding 105°F during the day and little evidence of an approaching frontal boundary that could drop readings toward the historical mid-September average of 72–73°F. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between sub-72°F and 90°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, or boundary-layer mixing could alter the exact minimum by several degrees, while the 76–79°F range carries the next-highest implied probability as the most consistent model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to overnight lows in the upper 70s for Houston on September 15, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and persistent southeast flow off the Gulf that limits nocturnal cooling and maintains high dew points near 75°F. This pattern has produced above-normal minimum temperatures across the past week, with heat indices exceeding 105°F during the day and little evidence of an approaching frontal boundary that could drop readings toward the historical mid-September average of 72–73°F. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between sub-72°F and 90°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, or boundary-layer mixing could alter the exact minimum by several degrees, while the 76–79°F range carries the next-highest implied probability as the most consistent model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to overnight lows in the upper 70s for Houston on September 15, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge and persistent southeast flow off the Gulf that limits nocturnal cooling and maintains high dew points near 75°F. This pattern has produced above-normal minimum temperatures across the past week, with heat indices exceeding 105°F during the day and little evidence of an approaching frontal boundary that could drop readings toward the historical mid-September average of 72–73°F. Trader sentiment remains nearly evenly split between sub-72°F and 90°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, or boundary-layer mixing could alter the exact minimum by several degrees, while the 76–79°F range carries the next-highest implied probability as the most consistent model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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