Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other global ensembles show Tokyo under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 30–31 °C. This consensus, following a cooler, rainier period earlier in the week, has concentrated trader probability on those two outcomes at roughly 83 % combined implied odds. Seasonal normals for mid-September hover around 27–28 °C, so the current pattern reflects modest warmth relative to climatology without extreme heat signals. Updated guidance expected overnight and on the 13th will refine timing of any cloud cover or wind shifts that could nudge the peak by 1 °C, while official JMA observations will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
30°C 48%
31°C 35%
29°C 10%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
5%
29°C
10%
30°C
48%
31°C
35%
32°C
5%
33°C
4%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 48%
31°C 35%
29°C 10%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$175 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$16 Vol.
5%
29°C
$36 Vol.
10%
30°C
$30 Vol.
48%
31°C
$558 Vol.
35%
32°C
$59 Vol.
5%
33°C
$0 Vol.
4%
34°C
$40 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other global ensembles show Tokyo under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 30–31 °C. This consensus, following a cooler, rainier period earlier in the week, has concentrated trader probability on those two outcomes at roughly 83 % combined implied odds. Seasonal normals for mid-September hover around 27–28 °C, so the current pattern reflects modest warmth relative to climatology without extreme heat signals. Updated guidance expected overnight and on the 13th will refine timing of any cloud cover or wind shifts that could nudge the peak by 1 °C, while official JMA observations will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$882End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other global ensembles show Tokyo under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 30–31 °C. This consensus, following a cooler, rainier period earlier in the week, has concentrated trader probability on those two outcomes at roughly 83 % combined implied odds. Seasonal normals for mid-September hover around 27–28 °C, so the current pattern reflects modest warmth relative to climatology without extreme heat signals. Updated guidance expected overnight and on the 13th will refine timing of any cloud cover or wind shifts that could nudge the peak by 1 °C, while official JMA observations will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$882End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other global ensembles show Tokyo under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow on September 14, supporting a daily maximum near 30–31 °C. This consensus, following a cooler, rainier period earlier in the week, has concentrated trader probability on those two outcomes at roughly 83 % combined implied odds. Seasonal normals for mid-September hover around 27–28 °C, so the current pattern reflects modest warmth relative to climatology without extreme heat signals. Updated guidance expected overnight and on the 13th will refine timing of any cloud cover or wind shifts that could nudge the peak by 1 °C, while official JMA observations will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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