Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS runs, converge on a daily high near 78–82°F for downtown Los Angeles on September 14, driven by persistent onshore flow, a stable marine layer, and light southerly winds that limit daytime heating. This places the outcome squarely in the 78–79°F bin, which holds the highest market-implied probability at 45 percent, with the next tier (80–81°F) at 18 percent. Conditions align closely with climatological norms for mid-September, when the long-term average high sits at 76°F, and no significant warming or cooling signals appear in short-range guidance. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak reading ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 14?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 14?
78-79°F 45%
80-81°F 36%
74-75°F 16%
86°F or higher 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
67°F or below
6%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
45%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
14%
86°F or higher
16%
78-79°F 45%
80-81°F 36%
74-75°F 16%
86°F or higher 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
6%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
5%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$503 Vol.
13%
78-79°F
$1,071 Vol.
45%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
36%
82-83°F
$44 Vol.
14%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
14%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS runs, converge on a daily high near 78–82°F for downtown Los Angeles on September 14, driven by persistent onshore flow, a stable marine layer, and light southerly winds that limit daytime heating. This places the outcome squarely in the 78–79°F bin, which holds the highest market-implied probability at 45 percent, with the next tier (80–81°F) at 18 percent. Conditions align closely with climatological norms for mid-September, when the long-term average high sits at 76°F, and no significant warming or cooling signals appear in short-range guidance. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak reading ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,623End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS runs, converge on a daily high near 78–82°F for downtown Los Angeles on September 14, driven by persistent onshore flow, a stable marine layer, and light southerly winds that limit daytime heating. This places the outcome squarely in the 78–79°F bin, which holds the highest market-implied probability at 45 percent, with the next tier (80–81°F) at 18 percent. Conditions align closely with climatological norms for mid-September, when the long-term average high sits at 76°F, and no significant warming or cooling signals appear in short-range guidance. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak reading ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,623End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including GFS runs, converge on a daily high near 78–82°F for downtown Los Angeles on September 14, driven by persistent onshore flow, a stable marine layer, and light southerly winds that limit daytime heating. This places the outcome squarely in the 78–79°F bin, which holds the highest market-implied probability at 45 percent, with the next tier (80–81°F) at 18 percent. Conditions align closely with climatological norms for mid-September, when the long-term average high sits at 76°F, and no significant warming or cooling signals appear in short-range guidance. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak reading ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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