**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and a slow-moving frontal boundary over southeastern Brazil are creating forecast uncertainty for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on September 14.** Multiple models show lows clustering near 13–15 °C amid high humidity and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling, yet some runs allow brief clearing that could drop readings toward 11–12 °C. Daytime maxima are similarly mixed, with trader-implied odds split almost evenly between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflecting this spread. Historical September minima average around 12 °C, but the current moist, stable air mass favors the narrower 13–15 °C band that currently carries the highest single-outcome probability. Updated model runs and official INMET or CPTEC guidance tonight will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 14?
10°C or below 76%
20°C or higher 76%
12°C 39%
16°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
10°C or below
76%
11°C
18%
12°C
39%
13°C
24%
14°C
30%
15°C
21%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
17%
19°C
17%
20°C or higher
76%
10°C or below 76%
20°C or higher 76%
12°C 39%
16°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
76%
11°C
$0 Vol.
18%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and a slow-moving frontal boundary over southeastern Brazil are creating forecast uncertainty for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on September 14.** Multiple models show lows clustering near 13–15 °C amid high humidity and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling, yet some runs allow brief clearing that could drop readings toward 11–12 °C. Daytime maxima are similarly mixed, with trader-implied odds split almost evenly between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflecting this spread. Historical September minima average around 12 °C, but the current moist, stable air mass favors the narrower 13–15 °C band that currently carries the highest single-outcome probability. Updated model runs and official INMET or CPTEC guidance tonight will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and a slow-moving frontal boundary over southeastern Brazil are creating forecast uncertainty for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on September 14.** Multiple models show lows clustering near 13–15 °C amid high humidity and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling, yet some runs allow brief clearing that could drop readings toward 11–12 °C. Daytime maxima are similarly mixed, with trader-implied odds split almost evenly between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflecting this spread. Historical September minima average around 12 °C, but the current moist, stable air mass favors the narrower 13–15 °C band that currently carries the highest single-outcome probability. Updated model runs and official INMET or CPTEC guidance tonight will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and a slow-moving frontal boundary over southeastern Brazil are creating forecast uncertainty for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on September 14.** Multiple models show lows clustering near 13–15 °C amid high humidity and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling, yet some runs allow brief clearing that could drop readings toward 11–12 °C. Daytime maxima are similarly mixed, with trader-implied odds split almost evenly between sub-10 °C and 20 °C-plus outcomes reflecting this spread. Historical September minima average around 12 °C, but the current moist, stable air mass favors the narrower 13–15 °C band that currently carries the highest single-outcome probability. Updated model runs and official INMET or CPTEC guidance tonight will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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