Recent forecasts for Shenzhen on September 13 indicate a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, driven by easterly flow and elevated moisture, which should limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Multiple models, including those from international agencies, project daily maxima clustered around 29–31°C, aligning with the tight market-implied odds between those outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions where precipitation suppresses peaks below clearer-day levels near 32–33°C, though model spread on exact rainfall timing and intensity creates the observed uncertainty. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 13?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 13?
30°C 30%
31°C 29%
29°C 20%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
3%
27°C
7%
28°C
9%
29°C
20%
30°C
30%
31°C
29%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C
8%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
3%
30°C 30%
31°C 29%
29°C 20%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
$525 Vol.
3%
27°C
$16 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$496 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
30%
31°C
$165 Vol.
29%
32°C
$42 Vol.
12%
33°C
$140 Vol.
6%
34°C
$0 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
6%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen on September 13 indicate a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, driven by easterly flow and elevated moisture, which should limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Multiple models, including those from international agencies, project daily maxima clustered around 29–31°C, aligning with the tight market-implied odds between those outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions where precipitation suppresses peaks below clearer-day levels near 32–33°C, though model spread on exact rainfall timing and intensity creates the observed uncertainty. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,383End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen on September 13 indicate a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, driven by easterly flow and elevated moisture, which should limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Multiple models, including those from international agencies, project daily maxima clustered around 29–31°C, aligning with the tight market-implied odds between those outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions where precipitation suppresses peaks below clearer-day levels near 32–33°C, though model spread on exact rainfall timing and intensity creates the observed uncertainty. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,383End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Shenzhen on September 13 indicate a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, driven by easterly flow and elevated moisture, which should limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Multiple models, including those from international agencies, project daily maxima clustered around 29–31°C, aligning with the tight market-implied odds between those outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer subtropical conditions where precipitation suppresses peaks below clearer-day levels near 32–33°C, though model spread on exact rainfall timing and intensity creates the observed uncertainty. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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