Short-term numerical weather prediction models, including those from MetService and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a daily maximum near 15°C for Wellington on September 11 under mainly fine conditions with northwest winds following the passage of a cold front. This setup favors modest daytime warming after today’s southerly change and rain, consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability on 15°C and secondary weighting on 14°C. El Niño-driven westerly flow adds typical spring variability, though current guidance shows limited deviation risk below 13°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 11th will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 11?
15°C 61%
14°C 24%
16°C 13%
12°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
24%
15°C
61%
16°C
13%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 61%
14°C 24%
16°C 13%
12°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
9°C or below
$528 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$194 Vol.
1%
12°C
$626 Vol.
2%
13°C
$1,654 Vol.
2%
14°C
$1,161 Vol.
24%
15°C
$2,884 Vol.
61%
16°C
$1,221 Vol.
13%
17°C
$225 Vol.
2%
18°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$471 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models, including those from MetService and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a daily maximum near 15°C for Wellington on September 11 under mainly fine conditions with northwest winds following the passage of a cold front. This setup favors modest daytime warming after today’s southerly change and rain, consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability on 15°C and secondary weighting on 14°C. El Niño-driven westerly flow adds typical spring variability, though current guidance shows limited deviation risk below 13°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 11th will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,490End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models, including those from MetService and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a daily maximum near 15°C for Wellington on September 11 under mainly fine conditions with northwest winds following the passage of a cold front. This setup favors modest daytime warming after today’s southerly change and rain, consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability on 15°C and secondary weighting on 14°C. El Niño-driven westerly flow adds typical spring variability, though current guidance shows limited deviation risk below 13°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 11th will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,490End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term numerical weather prediction models, including those from MetService and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a daily maximum near 15°C for Wellington on September 11 under mainly fine conditions with northwest winds following the passage of a cold front. This setup favors modest daytime warming after today’s southerly change and rain, consistent with the market’s 60.5% implied probability on 15°C and secondary weighting on 14°C. El Niño-driven westerly flow adds typical spring variability, though current guidance shows limited deviation risk below 13°C or above 16°C. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the 11th will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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