Recent forecasts from multiple models show a cold air mass arriving over Chongqing around September 9–10, driving a sharp cooldown from recent highs near 37°C. Increased cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, with official guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–28°C under mostly cloudy, rainy conditions. This shift creates tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–30°C, as traders weigh minor differences in model timing, cloud thickness, and exact advection strength. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, but final adjustments from updated runs could refine the peak within the narrow 26–31°C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
30°C 32%
29°C 25%
28°C 22%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
11%
28°C
22%
29°C
25%
30°C
26%
31°C
14%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
4%
30°C 32%
29°C 25%
28°C 22%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
23°C or below
$283 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$289 Vol.
1%
25°C
$280 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$26 Vol.
5%
27°C
$8 Vol.
11%
28°C
$0 Vol.
22%
29°C
$9 Vol.
25%
30°C
$327 Vol.
26%
31°C
$98 Vol.
14%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$250 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show a cold air mass arriving over Chongqing around September 9–10, driving a sharp cooldown from recent highs near 37°C. Increased cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, with official guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–28°C under mostly cloudy, rainy conditions. This shift creates tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–30°C, as traders weigh minor differences in model timing, cloud thickness, and exact advection strength. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, but final adjustments from updated runs could refine the peak within the narrow 26–31°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,571End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show a cold air mass arriving over Chongqing around September 9–10, driving a sharp cooldown from recent highs near 37°C. Increased cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, with official guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–28°C under mostly cloudy, rainy conditions. This shift creates tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–30°C, as traders weigh minor differences in model timing, cloud thickness, and exact advection strength. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, but final adjustments from updated runs could refine the peak within the narrow 26–31°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,571End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models show a cold air mass arriving over Chongqing around September 9–10, driving a sharp cooldown from recent highs near 37°C. Increased cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, with official guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–28°C under mostly cloudy, rainy conditions. This shift creates tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–30°C, as traders weigh minor differences in model timing, cloud thickness, and exact advection strength. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, but final adjustments from updated runs could refine the peak within the narrow 26–31°C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions