Recent forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and supporting models indicate sunny skies and light winds across Toronto on September 11, supporting a daytime maximum near the long-term average of 23°C. This consensus, with projected highs of 22–24°C across most guidance, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C at 60% implied probability. Clear conditions and moderate humidity limit deviation risks, while historical September data show similar calm setups rarely exceed 25°C or fall below 22°C without frontal passages. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 11?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 11?
23°C 65%
24°C 24%
22°C 13%
25°C 2%
$28,952 Vol.
$28,952 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
13%
23°C
65%
24°C
24%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 65%
24°C 24%
22°C 13%
25°C 2%
$28,952 Vol.
$28,952 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
18°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$268 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$779 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,789 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,643 Vol.
13%
23°C
$7,881 Vol.
65%
24°C
$6,005 Vol.
24%
25°C
$3,145 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,405 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,240 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,481 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and supporting models indicate sunny skies and light winds across Toronto on September 11, supporting a daytime maximum near the long-term average of 23°C. This consensus, with projected highs of 22–24°C across most guidance, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C at 60% implied probability. Clear conditions and moderate humidity limit deviation risks, while historical September data show similar calm setups rarely exceed 25°C or fall below 22°C without frontal passages. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$28,952End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and supporting models indicate sunny skies and light winds across Toronto on September 11, supporting a daytime maximum near the long-term average of 23°C. This consensus, with projected highs of 22–24°C across most guidance, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C at 60% implied probability. Clear conditions and moderate humidity limit deviation risks, while historical September data show similar calm setups rarely exceed 25°C or fall below 22°C without frontal passages. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,952End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and supporting models indicate sunny skies and light winds across Toronto on September 11, supporting a daytime maximum near the long-term average of 23°C. This consensus, with projected highs of 22–24°C across most guidance, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 23°C at 60% implied probability. Clear conditions and moderate humidity limit deviation risks, while historical September data show similar calm setups rarely exceed 25°C or fall below 22°C without frontal passages. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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