Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a high near 100°F for Austin on September 13 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly sunny, with southerly winds at 5-10 mph sustaining warm, humid advection from the Gulf. Persistent late-summer ridging and above-average soil moisture support strong daytime heating, though variable afternoon cloud cover introduces modest uncertainty in peak insolation. These conditions place the most likely outcome in the 98-101°F range, aligning with the near-even market split between 98-99°F and 100-101°F bins; slight differences in model timing of clearing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probability assigned to 102°F-plus outcomes. Historical September highs average near 92°F, underscoring the current anomalous warmth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 13?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 13?
100-101°F 41%
98-99°F 37%
102-103°F 13%
96-97°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
11%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
41%
102-103°F
13%
104-105°F
5%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 41%
98-99°F 37%
102-103°F 13%
96-97°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
89°F or below
$247 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$217 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$66 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$126 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$633 Vol.
11%
98-99°F
$147 Vol.
37%
100-101°F
$1,150 Vol.
41%
102-103°F
$161 Vol.
13%
104-105°F
$70 Vol.
5%
106-107°F
$65 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$240 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a high near 100°F for Austin on September 13 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly sunny, with southerly winds at 5-10 mph sustaining warm, humid advection from the Gulf. Persistent late-summer ridging and above-average soil moisture support strong daytime heating, though variable afternoon cloud cover introduces modest uncertainty in peak insolation. These conditions place the most likely outcome in the 98-101°F range, aligning with the near-even market split between 98-99°F and 100-101°F bins; slight differences in model timing of clearing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probability assigned to 102°F-plus outcomes. Historical September highs average near 92°F, underscoring the current anomalous warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,122End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a high near 100°F for Austin on September 13 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly sunny, with southerly winds at 5-10 mph sustaining warm, humid advection from the Gulf. Persistent late-summer ridging and above-average soil moisture support strong daytime heating, though variable afternoon cloud cover introduces modest uncertainty in peak insolation. These conditions place the most likely outcome in the 98-101°F range, aligning with the near-even market split between 98-99°F and 100-101°F bins; slight differences in model timing of clearing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probability assigned to 102°F-plus outcomes. Historical September highs average near 92°F, underscoring the current anomalous warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,122End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models and National Weather Service guidance indicate a high near 100°F for Austin on September 13 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly sunny, with southerly winds at 5-10 mph sustaining warm, humid advection from the Gulf. Persistent late-summer ridging and above-average soil moisture support strong daytime heating, though variable afternoon cloud cover introduces modest uncertainty in peak insolation. These conditions place the most likely outcome in the 98-101°F range, aligning with the near-even market split between 98-99°F and 100-101°F bins; slight differences in model timing of clearing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probability assigned to 102°F-plus outcomes. Historical September highs average near 92°F, underscoring the current anomalous warmth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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