Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 12, with highs most likely reaching 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly to northwesterly winds. These conditions stem from a transient ridge following earlier southerly flow, limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cloud build-up that could suppress maxima. Historical September averages near 15 °C provide context, yet current model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns keeping the upper end of the distribution below 15 °C. Trader consensus at 14 °C (53.5 %) and 13 °C (29.5 %) aligns with this narrow forecast spread, with limited volatility expected absent major model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
14°C 58%
13°C 20%
15°C 16%
12°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
20%
14°C
58%
15°C
16%
16°C
4%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 58%
13°C 20%
15°C 16%
12°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
$333 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$304 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
2%
11°C
$35 Vol.
2%
12°C
$73 Vol.
4%
13°C
$515 Vol.
20%
14°C
$841 Vol.
58%
15°C
$132 Vol.
16%
16°C
$72 Vol.
4%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$143 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 12, with highs most likely reaching 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly to northwesterly winds. These conditions stem from a transient ridge following earlier southerly flow, limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cloud build-up that could suppress maxima. Historical September averages near 15 °C provide context, yet current model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns keeping the upper end of the distribution below 15 °C. Trader consensus at 14 °C (53.5 %) and 13 °C (29.5 %) aligns with this narrow forecast spread, with limited volatility expected absent major model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,448End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 12, with highs most likely reaching 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly to northwesterly winds. These conditions stem from a transient ridge following earlier southerly flow, limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cloud build-up that could suppress maxima. Historical September averages near 15 °C provide context, yet current model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns keeping the upper end of the distribution below 15 °C. Trader consensus at 14 °C (53.5 %) and 13 °C (29.5 %) aligns with this narrow forecast spread, with limited volatility expected absent major model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,448End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned models and international ensembles indicate a mild spring day in Wellington on September 12, with highs most likely reaching 13–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly to northwesterly winds. These conditions stem from a transient ridge following earlier southerly flow, limiting daytime heating while preventing significant cloud build-up that could suppress maxima. Historical September averages near 15 °C provide context, yet current model runs show slightly cooler steering patterns keeping the upper end of the distribution below 15 °C. Trader consensus at 14 °C (53.5 %) and 13 °C (29.5 %) aligns with this narrow forecast spread, with limited volatility expected absent major model shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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