Recent model consensus points to a cooler, rainier day in São Paulo on September 12 driven by a southward-advancing cold front that will replace the warm, sunny conditions observed on the 11th. Increased cloud cover, gusty southerly winds, and widespread showers are expected to limit daytime heating, with most official and ensemble guidance converging on a maximum near 23–26 °C. The narrow spread among leading market outcomes (22–24 °C) reflects residual uncertainty in the exact timing of frontal passage and local urban heat-island effects; a slightly earlier or more intense rain band would cap temperatures at the lower end, while delayed cloud build-up could allow brief afternoon warming toward 24 °C. Updated NWP runs and surface observations through the morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
23°C 23%
24°C 23%
22°C 17%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
10%
22°C
17%
23°C
23%
24°C
23%
25°C
16%
26°C
11%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
23°C 23%
24°C 23%
22°C 17%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
$247 Vol.
2%
20°C
$1,114 Vol.
2%
21°C
$1,086 Vol.
10%
22°C
$611 Vol.
17%
23°C
$880 Vol.
23%
24°C
$504 Vol.
23%
25°C
$420 Vol.
16%
26°C
$517 Vol.
11%
27°C
$418 Vol.
4%
28°C
$115 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$115 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a cooler, rainier day in São Paulo on September 12 driven by a southward-advancing cold front that will replace the warm, sunny conditions observed on the 11th. Increased cloud cover, gusty southerly winds, and widespread showers are expected to limit daytime heating, with most official and ensemble guidance converging on a maximum near 23–26 °C. The narrow spread among leading market outcomes (22–24 °C) reflects residual uncertainty in the exact timing of frontal passage and local urban heat-island effects; a slightly earlier or more intense rain band would cap temperatures at the lower end, while delayed cloud build-up could allow brief afternoon warming toward 24 °C. Updated NWP runs and surface observations through the morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$5,670End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to a cooler, rainier day in São Paulo on September 12 driven by a southward-advancing cold front that will replace the warm, sunny conditions observed on the 11th. Increased cloud cover, gusty southerly winds, and widespread showers are expected to limit daytime heating, with most official and ensemble guidance converging on a maximum near 23–26 °C. The narrow spread among leading market outcomes (22–24 °C) reflects residual uncertainty in the exact timing of frontal passage and local urban heat-island effects; a slightly earlier or more intense rain band would cap temperatures at the lower end, while delayed cloud build-up could allow brief afternoon warming toward 24 °C. Updated NWP runs and surface observations through the morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,670End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to a cooler, rainier day in São Paulo on September 12 driven by a southward-advancing cold front that will replace the warm, sunny conditions observed on the 11th. Increased cloud cover, gusty southerly winds, and widespread showers are expected to limit daytime heating, with most official and ensemble guidance converging on a maximum near 23–26 °C. The narrow spread among leading market outcomes (22–24 °C) reflects residual uncertainty in the exact timing of frontal passage and local urban heat-island effects; a slightly earlier or more intense rain band would cap temperatures at the lower end, while delayed cloud build-up could allow brief afternoon warming toward 24 °C. Updated NWP runs and surface observations through the morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions