**Recent forecasts position 17°C as the modal outcome for Moscow’s highest temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied probabilities reflecting model consensus around 16–18°C.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based and European models, indicate a frontal system arriving from the west will bring increased cloud cover, a 60–90% chance of rain, and westerly winds of 5–10 m/s. These conditions will limit daytime solar heating after warmer, sunnier days on September 9–10 (highs near 20–24°C). Ensemble guidance and official outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 17°C (roughly 62–65°F), aligning with climatological norms of ~17.3°C for the date while accounting for the expected precipitation and reduced insolation. Shorter September daylight and the seasonal decline in solar angle further constrain warming, making excursions above 19°C or below 16°C less likely under current steering patterns. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs and the proximity of resolution (two days out), favoring the narrow 16–18°C band where uncertainty is lowest. Updated forecasts from agencies like Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center or NOAA will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
17°C 44%
18°C 22%
16°C 21%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
6%
15°C
11%
16°C
21%
17°C
44%
18°C
22%
19°C
11%
20°C
10%
21°C
7%
22°C or higher
2%
17°C 44%
18°C 22%
16°C 21%
15°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$105 Vol.
2%
13°C
$63 Vol.
2%
14°C
$0 Vol.
6%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$62 Vol.
44%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$17 Vol.
10%
21°C
$16 Vol.
7%
22°C or higher
$105 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 17°C as the modal outcome for Moscow’s highest temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied probabilities reflecting model consensus around 16–18°C.**
Multiple sources, including GFS-based and European models, indicate a frontal system arriving from the west will bring increased cloud cover, a 60–90% chance of rain, and westerly winds of 5–10 m/s. These conditions will limit daytime solar heating after warmer, sunnier days on September 9–10 (highs near 20–24°C). Ensemble guidance and official outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 17°C (roughly 62–65°F), aligning with climatological norms of ~17.3°C for the date while accounting for the expected precipitation and reduced insolation.
Shorter September daylight and the seasonal decline in solar angle further constrain warming, making excursions above 19°C or below 16°C less likely under current steering patterns. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs and the proximity of resolution (two days out), favoring the narrow 16–18°C band where uncertainty is lowest. Updated forecasts from agencies like Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center or NOAA will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$367End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 17°C as the modal outcome for Moscow’s highest temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied probabilities reflecting model consensus around 16–18°C.**
Multiple sources, including GFS-based and European models, indicate a frontal system arriving from the west will bring increased cloud cover, a 60–90% chance of rain, and westerly winds of 5–10 m/s. These conditions will limit daytime solar heating after warmer, sunnier days on September 9–10 (highs near 20–24°C). Ensemble guidance and official outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 17°C (roughly 62–65°F), aligning with climatological norms of ~17.3°C for the date while accounting for the expected precipitation and reduced insolation.
Shorter September daylight and the seasonal decline in solar angle further constrain warming, making excursions above 19°C or below 16°C less likely under current steering patterns. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs and the proximity of resolution (two days out), favoring the narrow 16–18°C band where uncertainty is lowest. Updated forecasts from agencies like Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center or NOAA will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$367End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts position 17°C as the modal outcome for Moscow’s highest temperature on September 11, 2026, with market-implied probabilities reflecting model consensus around 16–18°C.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based and European models, indicate a frontal system arriving from the west will bring increased cloud cover, a 60–90% chance of rain, and westerly winds of 5–10 m/s. These conditions will limit daytime solar heating after warmer, sunnier days on September 9–10 (highs near 20–24°C). Ensemble guidance and official outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 17°C (roughly 62–65°F), aligning with climatological norms of ~17.3°C for the date while accounting for the expected precipitation and reduced insolation. Shorter September daylight and the seasonal decline in solar angle further constrain warming, making excursions above 19°C or below 16°C less likely under current steering patterns. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs and the proximity of resolution (two days out), favoring the narrow 16–18°C band where uncertainty is lowest. Updated forecasts from agencies like Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center or NOAA will likely drive any near-term shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions