Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 25–27°C in Qingdao on September 9, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air behind recent clear conditions and moderating maritime influences from the Yellow Sea. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, while current 10-day guidance shows partly cloudy skies and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit diurnal warming. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C and 26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in peak timing and any afternoon sea-breeze effects or minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and official station observations on the 8th and morning of the 9th will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 9?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 9?
25°C 39%
26°C 37%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
4%
23°C
6%
24°C
8%
25°C
39%
26°C
37%
27°C
13%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
4%
25°C 39%
26°C 37%
27°C 13%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$118 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$60 Vol.
4%
23°C
$20 Vol.
6%
24°C
$98 Vol.
8%
25°C
$270 Vol.
39%
26°C
$150 Vol.
37%
27°C
$17 Vol.
13%
28°C
$44 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$60 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 25–27°C in Qingdao on September 9, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air behind recent clear conditions and moderating maritime influences from the Yellow Sea. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, while current 10-day guidance shows partly cloudy skies and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit diurnal warming. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C and 26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in peak timing and any afternoon sea-breeze effects or minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and official station observations on the 8th and morning of the 9th will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$954End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 25–27°C in Qingdao on September 9, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air behind recent clear conditions and moderating maritime influences from the Yellow Sea. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, while current 10-day guidance shows partly cloudy skies and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit diurnal warming. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C and 26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in peak timing and any afternoon sea-breeze effects or minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and official station observations on the 8th and morning of the 9th will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$954End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 25–27°C in Qingdao on September 9, driven by northerly winds advecting cooler, drier air behind recent clear conditions and moderating maritime influences from the Yellow Sea. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, while current 10-day guidance shows partly cloudy skies and wind speeds of 15–25 km/h that limit diurnal warming. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25°C and 26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in peak timing and any afternoon sea-breeze effects or minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Updated short-range runs and official station observations on the 8th and morning of the 9th will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions