Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 9, 2026, driven by persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow that moderates temperatures despite a warm daytime high near 80–85°F. This setup aligns with historical September climatology, where average lows hover near 56°F, yet recent days have shown slightly elevated readings around 57–61°F. Trader emphasis on the 55°F-or-below bin reflects uncertainty in fog development and radiational cooling potential overnight, with official NOAA station data serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the evening will refine these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
55°F or below 89%
58-59°F 75%
66-67°F 69%
62-63°F 36%
$1,411 Vol.
$1,411 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
89%
56-57°F
31%
58-59°F
75%
60-61°F
34%
62-63°F
36%
64-65°F
35%
66-67°F
69%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
<1%
55°F or below 89%
58-59°F 75%
66-67°F 69%
62-63°F 36%
$1,411 Vol.
$1,411 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
$57 Vol.
89%
56-57°F
$123 Vol.
31%
58-59°F
$50 Vol.
75%
60-61°F
$11 Vol.
34%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
36%
64-65°F
$160 Vol.
35%
66-67°F
$426 Vol.
69%
68-69°F
$70 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$308 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$130 Vol.
<1%
74°F or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 9, 2026, driven by persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow that moderates temperatures despite a warm daytime high near 80–85°F. This setup aligns with historical September climatology, where average lows hover near 56°F, yet recent days have shown slightly elevated readings around 57–61°F. Trader emphasis on the 55°F-or-below bin reflects uncertainty in fog development and radiational cooling potential overnight, with official NOAA station data serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the evening will refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,411End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 9, 2026, driven by persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow that moderates temperatures despite a warm daytime high near 80–85°F. This setup aligns with historical September climatology, where average lows hover near 56°F, yet recent days have shown slightly elevated readings around 57–61°F. Trader emphasis on the 55°F-or-below bin reflects uncertainty in fog development and radiational cooling potential overnight, with official NOAA station data serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the evening will refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,411End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to an overnight minimum in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit for San Francisco on September 9, 2026, driven by persistent marine layer influence and onshore flow that moderates temperatures despite a warm daytime high near 80–85°F. This setup aligns with historical September climatology, where average lows hover near 56°F, yet recent days have shown slightly elevated readings around 57–61°F. Trader emphasis on the 55°F-or-below bin reflects uncertainty in fog development and radiational cooling potential overnight, with official NOAA station data serving as the resolution benchmark. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the evening will refine these market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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