Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a northwest wind shift and clearing skies overnight into September 11, supporting minimum temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s across Central Park and surrounding NYC sites. A warm, humid airmass lingering from September 10’s 87–88 °F highs has kept dew points elevated near 65–70 °F, limiting radiative cooling even as winds turn northerly at 5–10 mph. Ensemble spreads remain modest because cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing differ slightly among runs, keeping the 68–73 °F range tightly clustered in trader pricing. Historical September 11 lows average near 63 °F, so the current elevated baseline reflects both the seasonal warm anomaly and the short-term synoptic pattern. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 11?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 11?
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 31%
68-69°F 20%
66-67°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
31%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 31%
68-69°F 20%
66-67°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
$22 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$22 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$36 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$101 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$508 Vol.
20%
70-71°F
$1,962 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$522 Vol.
31%
74-75°F
$115 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$21 Vol.
1%
80°F or higher
$21 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a northwest wind shift and clearing skies overnight into September 11, supporting minimum temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s across Central Park and surrounding NYC sites. A warm, humid airmass lingering from September 10’s 87–88 °F highs has kept dew points elevated near 65–70 °F, limiting radiative cooling even as winds turn northerly at 5–10 mph. Ensemble spreads remain modest because cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing differ slightly among runs, keeping the 68–73 °F range tightly clustered in trader pricing. Historical September 11 lows average near 63 °F, so the current elevated baseline reflects both the seasonal warm anomaly and the short-term synoptic pattern. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a northwest wind shift and clearing skies overnight into September 11, supporting minimum temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s across Central Park and surrounding NYC sites. A warm, humid airmass lingering from September 10’s 87–88 °F highs has kept dew points elevated near 65–70 °F, limiting radiative cooling even as winds turn northerly at 5–10 mph. Ensemble spreads remain modest because cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing differ slightly among runs, keeping the 68–73 °F range tightly clustered in trader pricing. Historical September 11 lows average near 63 °F, so the current elevated baseline reflects both the seasonal warm anomaly and the short-term synoptic pattern. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a northwest wind shift and clearing skies overnight into September 11, supporting minimum temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s across Central Park and surrounding NYC sites. A warm, humid airmass lingering from September 10’s 87–88 °F highs has kept dew points elevated near 65–70 °F, limiting radiative cooling even as winds turn northerly at 5–10 mph. Ensemble spreads remain modest because cloud-cover timing and boundary-layer mixing differ slightly among runs, keeping the 68–73 °F range tightly clustered in trader pricing. Historical September 11 lows average near 63 °F, so the current elevated baseline reflects both the seasonal warm anomaly and the short-term synoptic pattern. Updated NWS forecast discussions and 00Z model cycles tonight will refine the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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