Recent forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and European ensembles indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C in Mexico City on September 12, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate humidity that limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. September’s climatological average low of 10–12°C provides baseline context, yet current steering patterns and elevated dew points near 12–13°C reduce the likelihood of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 49.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies or stronger drainage winds, while the cluster of 13–14°C probabilities around 20–21% aligns with the latest guidance. Updated NHC and local meteorological service runs expected within 24 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 12?
8°C or below 98%
18°C or higher 47%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
98%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
39%
18°C or higher
47%
8°C or below 98%
18°C or higher 47%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and European ensembles indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C in Mexico City on September 12, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate humidity that limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. September’s climatological average low of 10–12°C provides baseline context, yet current steering patterns and elevated dew points near 12–13°C reduce the likelihood of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 49.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies or stronger drainage winds, while the cluster of 13–14°C probabilities around 20–21% aligns with the latest guidance. Updated NHC and local meteorological service runs expected within 24 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and European ensembles indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C in Mexico City on September 12, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate humidity that limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. September’s climatological average low of 10–12°C provides baseline context, yet current steering patterns and elevated dew points near 12–13°C reduce the likelihood of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 49.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies or stronger drainage winds, while the cluster of 13–14°C probabilities around 20–21% aligns with the latest guidance. Updated NHC and local meteorological service runs expected within 24 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and European ensembles indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C in Mexico City on September 12, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and moderate humidity that limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. September’s climatological average low of 10–12°C provides baseline context, yet current steering patterns and elevated dew points near 12–13°C reduce the likelihood of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 49.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty in model spread and potential for clearer skies or stronger drainage winds, while the cluster of 13–14°C probabilities around 20–21% aligns with the latest guidance. Updated NHC and local meteorological service runs expected within 24 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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