Recent model consensus and real-time observations point to peak temperatures near 24–25°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly flow, explaining the near-even market split between 25°C and 26°C. Westerly winds advecting drier air, combined with solar insolation under broken cloud cover, support modest daytime heating, while Lake Ontario’s thermal moderation caps extremes. Environment Canada and GFS runs show afternoon highs around 23–25°C with low precipitation risk, aligning with historical September 10 averages near 23°C yet allowing brief spikes if cloud breaks widen. Traders weigh these variables against potential model revisions from afternoon observations, creating tight implied probabilities around the 25–26°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
25°C 48%
24°C 28%
26°C 22%
27°C or higher 2.3%
$44,490 Vol.
$44,490 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
28%
25°C
48%
26°C
22%
27°C or higher
2%
25°C 48%
24°C 28%
26°C 22%
27°C or higher 2.3%
$44,490 Vol.
$44,490 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$867 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$529 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$882 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$347 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,417 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,734 Vol.
2%
24°C
$11,052 Vol.
28%
25°C
$8,185 Vol.
48%
26°C
$12,294 Vol.
22%
27°C or higher
$1,762 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and real-time observations point to peak temperatures near 24–25°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly flow, explaining the near-even market split between 25°C and 26°C. Westerly winds advecting drier air, combined with solar insolation under broken cloud cover, support modest daytime heating, while Lake Ontario’s thermal moderation caps extremes. Environment Canada and GFS runs show afternoon highs around 23–25°C with low precipitation risk, aligning with historical September 10 averages near 23°C yet allowing brief spikes if cloud breaks widen. Traders weigh these variables against potential model revisions from afternoon observations, creating tight implied probabilities around the 25–26°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$44,490End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and real-time observations point to peak temperatures near 24–25°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly flow, explaining the near-even market split between 25°C and 26°C. Westerly winds advecting drier air, combined with solar insolation under broken cloud cover, support modest daytime heating, while Lake Ontario’s thermal moderation caps extremes. Environment Canada and GFS runs show afternoon highs around 23–25°C with low precipitation risk, aligning with historical September 10 averages near 23°C yet allowing brief spikes if cloud breaks widen. Traders weigh these variables against potential model revisions from afternoon observations, creating tight implied probabilities around the 25–26°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44,490End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and real-time observations point to peak temperatures near 24–25°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly flow, explaining the near-even market split between 25°C and 26°C. Westerly winds advecting drier air, combined with solar insolation under broken cloud cover, support modest daytime heating, while Lake Ontario’s thermal moderation caps extremes. Environment Canada and GFS runs show afternoon highs around 23–25°C with low precipitation risk, aligning with historical September 10 averages near 23°C yet allowing brief spikes if cloud breaks widen. Traders weigh these variables against potential model revisions from afternoon observations, creating tight implied probabilities around the 25–26°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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