Recent expansion of moderate to exceptional drought across the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and South-Central states, driven by prolonged above-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation, is the main factor shaping trader views on D4 presence for the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor for data through early September shows D4 covering roughly 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated where flash drought has intensified. Official NOAA and NDMC assessments note ongoing degradations in Arkansas, parts of Texas, and adjacent areas, with limited relief from isolated showers or Tropical Storm Edouard remnants. The next USDM map, released around September 17 and reflecting conditions through mid-month, will determine resolution; any model shifts toward wetter patterns or measurement revisions could alter state-level D4 designations.