**Forecast models and climatological data position mid-50s Fahrenheit as the most probable overnight low for San Francisco on September 14.** Official guidance, including National Weather Service and private analyses, consistently projects a low near 56°F under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with the weakening marine layer typical of mid-September when ocean-to-land temperature contrasts moderate. Historical averages for the date show a mean low of 55.9°F, with recent years ranging 54–59°F and no anomalous heat or cold advection evident in current model runs. This consensus underpins the dominant 56–57°F market bin, while adjacent ranges capture residual forecast uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum by 1–2°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
56-57°F 72%
47°F or below 37%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 19%
$406 Vol.
$406 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
37%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
80%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F or higher
<1%
56-57°F 72%
47°F or below 37%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 19%
$406 Vol.
$406 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
37%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
18%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
19%
52-53°F
$5 Vol.
19%
54-55°F
$48 Vol.
22%
56-57°F
$176 Vol.
80%
58-59°F
$172 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and climatological data position mid-50s Fahrenheit as the most probable overnight low for San Francisco on September 14.** Official guidance, including National Weather Service and private analyses, consistently projects a low near 56°F under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with the weakening marine layer typical of mid-September when ocean-to-land temperature contrasts moderate. Historical averages for the date show a mean low of 55.9°F, with recent years ranging 54–59°F and no anomalous heat or cold advection evident in current model runs. This consensus underpins the dominant 56–57°F market bin, while adjacent ranges capture residual forecast uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum by 1–2°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$406End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and climatological data position mid-50s Fahrenheit as the most probable overnight low for San Francisco on September 14.** Official guidance, including National Weather Service and private analyses, consistently projects a low near 56°F under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with the weakening marine layer typical of mid-September when ocean-to-land temperature contrasts moderate. Historical averages for the date show a mean low of 55.9°F, with recent years ranging 54–59°F and no anomalous heat or cold advection evident in current model runs. This consensus underpins the dominant 56–57°F market bin, while adjacent ranges capture residual forecast uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum by 1–2°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$406End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and climatological data position mid-50s Fahrenheit as the most probable overnight low for San Francisco on September 14.** Official guidance, including National Weather Service and private analyses, consistently projects a low near 56°F under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, consistent with the weakening marine layer typical of mid-September when ocean-to-land temperature contrasts moderate. Historical averages for the date show a mean low of 55.9°F, with recent years ranging 54–59°F and no anomalous heat or cold advection evident in current model runs. This consensus underpins the dominant 56–57°F market bin, while adjacent ranges capture residual forecast uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or wind that could nudge the minimum by 1–2°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions