Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with NHC and regional analyses, indicate a stable warm air mass over Wuhan with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting daytime highs centered on 31–33°C for September 14. This positioning reflects typical mid-September subtropical conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where high pressure and seasonal humidity sustain temperatures near historical averages without significant frontal passages or cooling advection in the latest runs. Trader consensus, reflected in elevated implied probabilities for 32°C and 31°C, aligns with these consensus outputs and minimal expected variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover or localized heating could shift the official maximum by 1°C. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria ahead of close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on September 14?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on September 14?
32°C 35%
31°C 26%
33°C 16%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
10%
31°C
26%
32°C
35%
33°C
16%
34°C
6%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 35%
31°C 26%
33°C 16%
30°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
27°C or below
$227 Vol.
1%
28°C
$150 Vol.
2%
29°C
$300 Vol.
4%
30°C
$819 Vol.
10%
31°C
$494 Vol.
26%
32°C
$141 Vol.
35%
33°C
$597 Vol.
16%
34°C
$77 Vol.
6%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C
$266 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$456 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with NHC and regional analyses, indicate a stable warm air mass over Wuhan with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting daytime highs centered on 31–33°C for September 14. This positioning reflects typical mid-September subtropical conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where high pressure and seasonal humidity sustain temperatures near historical averages without significant frontal passages or cooling advection in the latest runs. Trader consensus, reflected in elevated implied probabilities for 32°C and 31°C, aligns with these consensus outputs and minimal expected variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover or localized heating could shift the official maximum by 1°C. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria ahead of close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,528End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with NHC and regional analyses, indicate a stable warm air mass over Wuhan with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting daytime highs centered on 31–33°C for September 14. This positioning reflects typical mid-September subtropical conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where high pressure and seasonal humidity sustain temperatures near historical averages without significant frontal passages or cooling advection in the latest runs. Trader consensus, reflected in elevated implied probabilities for 32°C and 31°C, aligns with these consensus outputs and minimal expected variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover or localized heating could shift the official maximum by 1°C. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria ahead of close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,528End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with NHC and regional analyses, indicate a stable warm air mass over Wuhan with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting daytime highs centered on 31–33°C for September 14. This positioning reflects typical mid-September subtropical conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where high pressure and seasonal humidity sustain temperatures near historical averages without significant frontal passages or cooling advection in the latest runs. Trader consensus, reflected in elevated implied probabilities for 32°C and 31°C, aligns with these consensus outputs and minimal expected variability, though minor model spreads on cloud cover or localized heating could shift the official maximum by 1°C. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution criteria ahead of close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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