Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate sunny conditions with south winds of 5–10 mph will support a Dallas high near 100°F on September 13, aligning with the market’s 64.5% implied probability for 100–101°F. Persistent hot, dry air mass across North Texas has produced multiple consecutive days above 100°F, elevating heat indices near 105°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. This setup deviates from the 1991–2020 September 13 average high of 90°F but remains well below the 107°F record. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with limited potential for slight cooling or warming depending on boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds; traders appear to weight official forecast products heavily given the short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 13?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 13?
100-101°F 64%
98-99°F 21%
102-103°F 7%
96-97°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
21%
100-101°F
64%
102-103°F
7%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 64%
98-99°F 21%
102-103°F 7%
96-97°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
89°F or below
$103 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$148 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$73 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$78 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$238 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$3,162 Vol.
21%
100-101°F
$1,710 Vol.
64%
102-103°F
$247 Vol.
7%
104-105°F
$95 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$81 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$295 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate sunny conditions with south winds of 5–10 mph will support a Dallas high near 100°F on September 13, aligning with the market’s 64.5% implied probability for 100–101°F. Persistent hot, dry air mass across North Texas has produced multiple consecutive days above 100°F, elevating heat indices near 105°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. This setup deviates from the 1991–2020 September 13 average high of 90°F but remains well below the 107°F record. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with limited potential for slight cooling or warming depending on boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds; traders appear to weight official forecast products heavily given the short time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,228End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate sunny conditions with south winds of 5–10 mph will support a Dallas high near 100°F on September 13, aligning with the market’s 64.5% implied probability for 100–101°F. Persistent hot, dry air mass across North Texas has produced multiple consecutive days above 100°F, elevating heat indices near 105°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. This setup deviates from the 1991–2020 September 13 average high of 90°F but remains well below the 107°F record. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with limited potential for slight cooling or warming depending on boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds; traders appear to weight official forecast products heavily given the short time to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,228End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance indicate sunny conditions with south winds of 5–10 mph will support a Dallas high near 100°F on September 13, aligning with the market’s 64.5% implied probability for 100–101°F. Persistent hot, dry air mass across North Texas has produced multiple consecutive days above 100°F, elevating heat indices near 105°F amid low humidity and minimal cloud cover. This setup deviates from the 1991–2020 September 13 average high of 90°F but remains well below the 107°F record. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with limited potential for slight cooling or warming depending on boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds; traders appear to weight official forecast products heavily given the short time to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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