Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass over Chicago ahead of September 14, with forecast overnight lows centered near 54–59°F amid clearing skies and lighter winds that favor radiational cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because ensemble spreads show meaningful uncertainty in minimum temperature, driven by variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any southeast wind shift. Historical climatology places the September 14 average low at 59.4°F, providing a baseline against which current cooler projections compete with warmer scenarios if clouds or stronger flow persist. With resolution just 48 hours away, updates from the next model cycles will likely determine whether probabilities consolidate toward the 49°F-or-below or 68°F-or-higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
68°F or higher 62%
49°F or below 60%
50-51°F 39%
58-59°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
60%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
30%
54-55°F
28%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68°F or higher
62%
68°F or higher 62%
49°F or below 60%
50-51°F 39%
58-59°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
60%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
30%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
28%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
25%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
39%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass over Chicago ahead of September 14, with forecast overnight lows centered near 54–59°F amid clearing skies and lighter winds that favor radiational cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because ensemble spreads show meaningful uncertainty in minimum temperature, driven by variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any southeast wind shift. Historical climatology places the September 14 average low at 59.4°F, providing a baseline against which current cooler projections compete with warmer scenarios if clouds or stronger flow persist. With resolution just 48 hours away, updates from the next model cycles will likely determine whether probabilities consolidate toward the 49°F-or-below or 68°F-or-higher bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass over Chicago ahead of September 14, with forecast overnight lows centered near 54–59°F amid clearing skies and lighter winds that favor radiational cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because ensemble spreads show meaningful uncertainty in minimum temperature, driven by variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any southeast wind shift. Historical climatology places the September 14 average low at 59.4°F, providing a baseline against which current cooler projections compete with warmer scenarios if clouds or stronger flow persist. With resolution just 48 hours away, updates from the next model cycles will likely determine whether probabilities consolidate toward the 49°F-or-below or 68°F-or-higher bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass over Chicago ahead of September 14, with forecast overnight lows centered near 54–59°F amid clearing skies and lighter winds that favor radiational cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because ensemble spreads show meaningful uncertainty in minimum temperature, driven by variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the exact timing of any southeast wind shift. Historical climatology places the September 14 average low at 59.4°F, providing a baseline against which current cooler projections compete with warmer scenarios if clouds or stronger flow persist. With resolution just 48 hours away, updates from the next model cycles will likely determine whether probabilities consolidate toward the 49°F-or-below or 68°F-or-higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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