Current ensemble forecasts from global models indicate the overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 14 will most likely fall between 5–8°C, driven by clear skies, light northerly winds, and strong radiative cooling under a building high-pressure system following an earlier cold outbreak. Recent observations show September minima already reached 2.4°C earlier in the month, establishing a cool baseline, while climatological averages for mid-September hover near 10–11°C. Model consensus supports this range but carries uncertainty from small differences in low-level moisture and wind mixing that could shift the exact low by 2–3°C. Trader-implied probabilities near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect this narrow forecast spread and the sensitivity of the daily minimum to subtle atmospheric conditions. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the overnight period will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 14?
2°C or below 100%
12°C or higher 98%
4°C 39%
5°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
100%
3°C
36%
4°C
39%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
39%
8°C
38%
9°C
13%
10°C
13%
11°C
13%
12°C or higher
98%
2°C or below 100%
12°C or higher 98%
4°C 39%
5°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
3°C
$0 Vol.
36%
4°C
$0 Vol.
39%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
13%
10°C
$0 Vol.
13%
11°C
$0 Vol.
13%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models indicate the overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 14 will most likely fall between 5–8°C, driven by clear skies, light northerly winds, and strong radiative cooling under a building high-pressure system following an earlier cold outbreak. Recent observations show September minima already reached 2.4°C earlier in the month, establishing a cool baseline, while climatological averages for mid-September hover near 10–11°C. Model consensus supports this range but carries uncertainty from small differences in low-level moisture and wind mixing that could shift the exact low by 2–3°C. Trader-implied probabilities near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect this narrow forecast spread and the sensitivity of the daily minimum to subtle atmospheric conditions. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the overnight period will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models indicate the overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 14 will most likely fall between 5–8°C, driven by clear skies, light northerly winds, and strong radiative cooling under a building high-pressure system following an earlier cold outbreak. Recent observations show September minima already reached 2.4°C earlier in the month, establishing a cool baseline, while climatological averages for mid-September hover near 10–11°C. Model consensus supports this range but carries uncertainty from small differences in low-level moisture and wind mixing that could shift the exact low by 2–3°C. Trader-implied probabilities near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect this narrow forecast spread and the sensitivity of the daily minimum to subtle atmospheric conditions. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the overnight period will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models indicate the overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on September 14 will most likely fall between 5–8°C, driven by clear skies, light northerly winds, and strong radiative cooling under a building high-pressure system following an earlier cold outbreak. Recent observations show September minima already reached 2.4°C earlier in the month, establishing a cool baseline, while climatological averages for mid-September hover near 10–11°C. Model consensus supports this range but carries uncertainty from small differences in low-level moisture and wind mixing that could shift the exact low by 2–3°C. Trader-implied probabilities near 50% for both sub-2°C and 12°C+ outcomes reflect this narrow forecast spread and the sensitivity of the daily minimum to subtle atmospheric conditions. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance ahead of the overnight period will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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