Forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show mostly cloudy conditions with light morning showers or drizzle across Tokyo on September 13, moderating solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 25–27°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and light northeasterly winds reduce the urban heat island effect and limit afternoon warming compared to clearer September baselines. Market-implied odds cluster on 25°C and 26°C because ensemble runs diverge on the precise timing of any partial clearing versus continued overcast skies, with official resolution hinging on verified station measurements rather than models. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical late-summer variability for the Kanto region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
25°C 62%
24°C 17%
26°C 16%
27°C 5%
NEW
$36,850 Vol.
NEW
$36,850 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
17%
25°C
62%
26°C
16%
27°C
5%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 62%
24°C 17%
26°C 16%
27°C 5%
NEW
$36,850 Vol.
NEW
$36,850 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
21°C or below
$1,377 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,142 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,360 Vol.
2%
24°C
$4,177 Vol.
17%
25°C
$4,027 Vol.
62%
26°C
$4,307 Vol.
16%
27°C
$4,385 Vol.
5%
28°C
$3,693 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,673 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,226 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,483 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show mostly cloudy conditions with light morning showers or drizzle across Tokyo on September 13, moderating solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 25–27°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and light northeasterly winds reduce the urban heat island effect and limit afternoon warming compared to clearer September baselines. Market-implied odds cluster on 25°C and 26°C because ensemble runs diverge on the precise timing of any partial clearing versus continued overcast skies, with official resolution hinging on verified station measurements rather than models. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical late-summer variability for the Kanto region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$36,850End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show mostly cloudy conditions with light morning showers or drizzle across Tokyo on September 13, moderating solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 25–27°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and light northeasterly winds reduce the urban heat island effect and limit afternoon warming compared to clearer September baselines. Market-implied odds cluster on 25°C and 26°C because ensemble runs diverge on the precise timing of any partial clearing versus continued overcast skies, with official resolution hinging on verified station measurements rather than models. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical late-summer variability for the Kanto region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,850End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show mostly cloudy conditions with light morning showers or drizzle across Tokyo on September 13, moderating solar heating and capping the daily maximum near 25–27°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80%, and light northeasterly winds reduce the urban heat island effect and limit afternoon warming compared to clearer September baselines. Market-implied odds cluster on 25°C and 26°C because ensemble runs diverge on the precise timing of any partial clearing versus continued overcast skies, with official resolution hinging on verified station measurements rather than models. Traders weigh these atmospheric variables against historical late-summer variability for the Kanto region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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