Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime high near 31–32°C in Guangzhou on September 13, tempered by expected cloud cover and a 70–80% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that reduce solar heating. This uncertainty in storm timing and intensity explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C, as lighter precipitation or delayed convection could allow brief peaks near 34°C while stronger rain would cap readings closer to 32°C. Historical September climatology shows an average daily maximum of 32.2°C with notable interannual variability driven by monsoon moisture and regional pressure patterns; final model runs and observational updates overnight will likely refine the exact outcome before markets close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 13?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 13?
33°C 35%
34°C 34%
32°C 18%
35°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
4%
32°C
18%
33°C
35%
34°C
34%
35°C
8%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 35%
34°C 34%
32°C 18%
35°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
26°C or below
$103 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$77 Vol.
2%
30°C
$257 Vol.
3%
31°C
$291 Vol.
4%
32°C
$356 Vol.
18%
33°C
$40 Vol.
35%
34°C
$1,085 Vol.
34%
35°C
$348 Vol.
8%
36°C or higher
$121 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime high near 31–32°C in Guangzhou on September 13, tempered by expected cloud cover and a 70–80% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that reduce solar heating. This uncertainty in storm timing and intensity explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C, as lighter precipitation or delayed convection could allow brief peaks near 34°C while stronger rain would cap readings closer to 32°C. Historical September climatology shows an average daily maximum of 32.2°C with notable interannual variability driven by monsoon moisture and regional pressure patterns; final model runs and observational updates overnight will likely refine the exact outcome before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,899End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime high near 31–32°C in Guangzhou on September 13, tempered by expected cloud cover and a 70–80% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that reduce solar heating. This uncertainty in storm timing and intensity explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C, as lighter precipitation or delayed convection could allow brief peaks near 34°C while stronger rain would cap readings closer to 32°C. Historical September climatology shows an average daily maximum of 32.2°C with notable interannual variability driven by monsoon moisture and regional pressure patterns; final model runs and observational updates overnight will likely refine the exact outcome before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,899End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration points to a daytime high near 31–32°C in Guangzhou on September 13, tempered by expected cloud cover and a 70–80% chance of afternoon thunderstorms that reduce solar heating. This uncertainty in storm timing and intensity explains the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C, as lighter precipitation or delayed convection could allow brief peaks near 34°C while stronger rain would cap readings closer to 32°C. Historical September climatology shows an average daily maximum of 32.2°C with notable interannual variability driven by monsoon moisture and regional pressure patterns; final model runs and observational updates overnight will likely refine the exact outcome before markets close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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