**No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market period began on September 14, 2026, with the largest events limited to 5.6 in Indonesia and several 5.3s in the South Pacific and elsewhere through September 17.** USGS and global catalogs confirm this quiet stretch, consistent with normal variability in global seismicity where 6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week but cluster irregularly. With four days remaining and no foreshock swarms or model signals indicating imminent large ruptures on major subduction zones or faults, trader consensus assigns 61.5% implied probability to zero events and 26% to exactly one. Ongoing USGS monitoring and the absence of elevated activity in high-risk regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire support the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
0 64%
1 26%
2 7%
3 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
0
64%
1
26%
2
7%
3
4%
4
2%
5
2%
more than 5
1%
0 64%
1 26%
2 7%
3 4.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
0
$1,755 Vol.
64%
1
$192 Vol.
26%
2
$231 Vol.
7%
3
$31 Vol.
4%
4
$65 Vol.
2%
5
$87 Vol.
2%
more than 5
$64 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market period began on September 14, 2026, with the largest events limited to 5.6 in Indonesia and several 5.3s in the South Pacific and elsewhere through September 17.** USGS and global catalogs confirm this quiet stretch, consistent with normal variability in global seismicity where 6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week but cluster irregularly. With four days remaining and no foreshock swarms or model signals indicating imminent large ruptures on major subduction zones or faults, trader consensus assigns 61.5% implied probability to zero events and 26% to exactly one. Ongoing USGS monitoring and the absence of elevated activity in high-risk regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$2,426End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market period began on September 14, 2026, with the largest events limited to 5.6 in Indonesia and several 5.3s in the South Pacific and elsewhere through September 17.** USGS and global catalogs confirm this quiet stretch, consistent with normal variability in global seismicity where 6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week but cluster irregularly. With four days remaining and no foreshock swarms or model signals indicating imminent large ruptures on major subduction zones or faults, trader consensus assigns 61.5% implied probability to zero events and 26% to exactly one. Ongoing USGS monitoring and the absence of elevated activity in high-risk regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$2,426End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**No magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market period began on September 14, 2026, with the largest events limited to 5.6 in Indonesia and several 5.3s in the South Pacific and elsewhere through September 17.** USGS and global catalogs confirm this quiet stretch, consistent with normal variability in global seismicity where 6.5+ events average roughly one to two per week but cluster irregularly. With four days remaining and no foreshock swarms or model signals indicating imminent large ruptures on major subduction zones or faults, trader consensus assigns 61.5% implied probability to zero events and 26% to exactly one. Ongoing USGS monitoring and the absence of elevated activity in high-risk regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire support the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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