Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, anchored in the rarity of such colossal events—requiring over 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta and occurring roughly once per 50–100 years globally, per historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any qualifying eruption midway through the year. GVP tallies 47 confirmed eruptions to date, all VEI ≤4, with ongoing unrest at sites like Iceland's Svartsengi (magma ~0.05 km³, far below threshold), Philippines' Kanlaon (modest ash plumes), and Oregon's Axial Seamount (predicted effusive activity) showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale explosivity. USGS monitoring networks detect no precursory seismic swarms, massive deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling VEI ≥6 potential. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid buildup at a stratovolcano like Semeru or an under-monitored caldera, though comprehensive global surveillance and model consensus maintain low risk through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, anchored in the rarity of such colossal events—requiring over 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta and occurring roughly once per 50–100 years globally, per historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any qualifying eruption midway through the year. GVP tallies 47 confirmed eruptions to date, all VEI ≤4, with ongoing unrest at sites like Iceland's Svartsengi (magma ~0.05 km³, far below threshold), Philippines' Kanlaon (modest ash plumes), and Oregon's Axial Seamount (predicted effusive activity) showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale explosivity. USGS monitoring networks detect no precursory seismic swarms, massive deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling VEI ≥6 potential. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid buildup at a stratovolcano like Semeru or an under-monitored caldera, though comprehensive global surveillance and model consensus maintain low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$79,911End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, anchored in the rarity of such colossal events—requiring over 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta and occurring roughly once per 50–100 years globally, per historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any qualifying eruption midway through the year. GVP tallies 47 confirmed eruptions to date, all VEI ≤4, with ongoing unrest at sites like Iceland's Svartsengi (magma ~0.05 km³, far below threshold), Philippines' Kanlaon (modest ash plumes), and Oregon's Axial Seamount (predicted effusive activity) showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale explosivity. USGS monitoring networks detect no precursory seismic swarms, massive deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling VEI ≥6 potential. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid buildup at a stratovolcano like Semeru or an under-monitored caldera, though comprehensive global surveillance and model consensus maintain low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$79,911End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, anchored in the rarity of such colossal events—requiring over 10 cubic kilometers of ejecta and occurring roughly once per 50–100 years globally, per historical Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any qualifying eruption midway through the year. GVP tallies 47 confirmed eruptions to date, all VEI ≤4, with ongoing unrest at sites like Iceland's Svartsengi (magma ~0.05 km³, far below threshold), Philippines' Kanlaon (modest ash plumes), and Oregon's Axial Seamount (predicted effusive activity) showing no escalation toward Plinian-scale explosivity. USGS monitoring networks detect no precursory seismic swarms, massive deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling VEI ≥6 potential. Realistic challenges include unforeseen rapid buildup at a stratovolcano like Semeru or an under-monitored caldera, though comprehensive global surveillance and model consensus maintain low risk through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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