No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first 7.5 months of 2026, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records of 47 total eruptions, all classified at lower VEI levels. This absence, paired with the inherent rarity of VEI 4+ events—typically spaced years apart based on Holocene data and volume thresholds exceeding 0.1 km³ with plumes over 10 km—strongly favors a zero or single-event outcome. Ongoing monitoring shows mostly smaller, ongoing activity at sites like Sakurajima and Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation to large explosive phases. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus on low near-term probability of major events reinforces trader weighting toward zero or one, though new seismic or gas data from observatories could shift assessments before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 67%
1 16%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
75%
1
16%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 16%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Vol.
$1,156,063 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,082 Vol.
75%
1
$273,925 Vol.
16%
2
$40,872 Vol.
4%
3
$31,654 Vol.
1%
4
$35,005 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first 7.5 months of 2026, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records of 47 total eruptions, all classified at lower VEI levels. This absence, paired with the inherent rarity of VEI 4+ events—typically spaced years apart based on Holocene data and volume thresholds exceeding 0.1 km³ with plumes over 10 km—strongly favors a zero or single-event outcome. Ongoing monitoring shows mostly smaller, ongoing activity at sites like Sakurajima and Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation to large explosive phases. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus on low near-term probability of major events reinforces trader weighting toward zero or one, though new seismic or gas data from observatories could shift assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,063End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first 7.5 months of 2026, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records of 47 total eruptions, all classified at lower VEI levels. This absence, paired with the inherent rarity of VEI 4+ events—typically spaced years apart based on Holocene data and volume thresholds exceeding 0.1 km³ with plumes over 10 km—strongly favors a zero or single-event outcome. Ongoing monitoring shows mostly smaller, ongoing activity at sites like Sakurajima and Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation to large explosive phases. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus on low near-term probability of major events reinforces trader weighting toward zero or one, though new seismic or gas data from observatories could shift assessments before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,063End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first 7.5 months of 2026, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records of 47 total eruptions, all classified at lower VEI levels. This absence, paired with the inherent rarity of VEI 4+ events—typically spaced years apart based on Holocene data and volume thresholds exceeding 0.1 km³ with plumes over 10 km—strongly favors a zero or single-event outcome. Ongoing monitoring shows mostly smaller, ongoing activity at sites like Sakurajima and Kīlauea without signs of rapid escalation to large explosive phases. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus on low near-term probability of major events reinforces trader weighting toward zero or one, though new seismic or gas data from observatories could shift assessments before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions