Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcano eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 57.5% implied probability for 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through mid-May per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, against a historical global average of about 0.6 such eruptions annually. Recent USGS-SI Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports through early May detail new unrest at Mayon with pyroclastic density currents extending 5 km and ash plumes to 5 km altitude, plus ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea and Strombolian explosions at Semeru and Merapi—none approaching the >0.1 km³ ejecta threshold for VEI 4. With seven months remaining, low seismic precursors at high-risk volcanoes sustain bets on zero or one, though unpredictable escalation remains possible per monitoring data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,075,383 Vol.
$1,075,383 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
57%
1
35%
2
4%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,075,383 Vol.
$1,075,383 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$476,542 Vol.
57%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$31,506 Vol.
4%
3
$25,989 Vol.
2%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$256,714 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcano eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 57.5% implied probability for 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through mid-May per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, against a historical global average of about 0.6 such eruptions annually. Recent USGS-SI Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports through early May detail new unrest at Mayon with pyroclastic density currents extending 5 km and ash plumes to 5 km altitude, plus ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea and Strombolian explosions at Semeru and Merapi—none approaching the >0.1 km³ ejecta threshold for VEI 4. With seven months remaining, low seismic precursors at high-risk volcanoes sustain bets on zero or one, though unpredictable escalation remains possible per monitoring data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,075,383End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcano eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 57.5% implied probability for 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through mid-May per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, against a historical global average of about 0.6 such eruptions annually. Recent USGS-SI Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports through early May detail new unrest at Mayon with pyroclastic density currents extending 5 km and ash plumes to 5 km altitude, plus ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea and Strombolian explosions at Semeru and Merapi—none approaching the >0.1 km³ ejecta threshold for VEI 4. With seven months remaining, low seismic precursors at high-risk volcanoes sustain bets on zero or one, though unpredictable escalation remains possible per monitoring data.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,075,383End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero large volcano eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 57.5% implied probability for 2026, driven by the complete absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 events through mid-May per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records, against a historical global average of about 0.6 such eruptions annually. Recent USGS-SI Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports through early May detail new unrest at Mayon with pyroclastic density currents extending 5 km and ash plumes to 5 km altitude, plus ongoing effusive activity at Kīlauea and Strombolian explosions at Semeru and Merapi—none approaching the >0.1 km³ ejecta threshold for VEI 4. With seven months remaining, low seismic precursors at high-risk volcanoes sustain bets on zero or one, though unpredictable escalation remains possible per monitoring data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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