Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57.5% implied probability to zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 blasts through mid-May, despite 47 smaller eruptions reported year-to-date. Current USGS and GVP monitoring of ~40 active volcanoes shows low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, with no seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling potential escalation to explosive VEI ≥4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ tephra volume). The 34.5% odds for exactly one align with baseline frequency amid inherent forecasting uncertainty; weekly GVP updates could shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,073,515 Vol.
$1,073,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
57%
1
35%
2
4%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 57%
1 35%
2 4.3%
3 1.6%
$1,073,515 Vol.
$1,073,515 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$476,542 Vol.
57%
1
$260,191 Vol.
35%
2
$31,506 Vol.
4%
3
$25,989 Vol.
2%
4
$24,441 Vol.
<1%
5+
$254,846 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57.5% implied probability to zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 blasts through mid-May, despite 47 smaller eruptions reported year-to-date. Current USGS and GVP monitoring of ~40 active volcanoes shows low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, with no seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling potential escalation to explosive VEI ≥4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ tephra volume). The 34.5% odds for exactly one align with baseline frequency amid inherent forecasting uncertainty; weekly GVP updates could shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,073,515End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57.5% implied probability to zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 blasts through mid-May, despite 47 smaller eruptions reported year-to-date. Current USGS and GVP monitoring of ~40 active volcanoes shows low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, with no seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling potential escalation to explosive VEI ≥4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ tephra volume). The 34.5% odds for exactly one align with baseline frequency amid inherent forecasting uncertainty; weekly GVP updates could shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,073,515End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57.5% implied probability to zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) records—and the absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 blasts through mid-May, despite 47 smaller eruptions reported year-to-date. Current USGS and GVP monitoring of ~40 active volcanoes shows low-level unrest at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru, with no seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or elevated gas emissions signaling potential escalation to explosive VEI ≥4 thresholds (≥0.1 km³ tephra volume). The 34.5% odds for exactly one align with baseline frequency amid inherent forecasting uncertainty; weekly GVP updates could shift sentiment if unrest intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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