Enhanced global surveillance systems, post-COVID preparedness measures including the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement, and the absence of any pathogen showing sustained human-to-human transmission with pandemic potential support the 83.5% market-implied probability against a new pandemic before 2028. As of late September 2026, official monitoring from CDC and WHO shows only localized outbreaks such as Bundibugyo ebolavirus in central Africa, mpox, and seasonal respiratory activity with low hospitalizations, none meeting criteria for international spread. Recent UN discussions highlight improved detection and response capacities, though experts note inherent uncertainties in zoonotic spillover risks and model projections over the short timeframe.