Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system, ESA risk lists, and global optical-radar surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 1-megaton airburst or surface impact during 2026, driving the 98.7% “No” consensus. Historical data show megaton-scale events occur roughly once per decade or rarer, with the last verified case (Chelyabinsk) at ~0.5 megatons in 2013; current catalogs cover the vast majority of objects above 140 meters. Traders price in the low base rate plus ongoing surveillance that would flag any credible threat well in advance. An undetected meter-to-decameter meteoroid on a surprise trajectory remains theoretically possible but statistically remote given sensor networks, while any late discovery would still face rapid follow-up observations before year-end resolution.