Preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 18 (ending approximately May 2, 2026) shows the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rate stabilizing at roughly 87 per 100,000 population nationwide, driving near-unanimous trader consensus (98.7% implied probability) for the 85–90 bin amid a moderate-to-severe 2025–2026 season—the third highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011. Declining national flu activity since the late-winter peak, confirmed by falling laboratory detections and FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer weekly admissions, has cemented this positioning as new cases taper off. Revisions remain possible, however, as recent-week rates are preliminary and often adjusted upward with delayed hospital reports; a surge in backfilled data could nudge the final figure into 90–95, while downward corrections are unlikely given historical patterns. Final FluView confirmation is due this week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?
85–90 98.4%
90–95 1.5%
<80 <1%
95–100 <1%
$14,539 Vol.
$14,539 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<80
1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
98%
90–95
2%
95–100
<1%
100+
<1%
85–90 98.4%
90–95 1.5%
<80 <1%
95–100 <1%
$14,539 Vol.
$14,539 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<80
$1,606 Vol.
1%
80–85
$1,729 Vol.
<1%
85–90
$5,921 Vol.
98%
90–95
$3,413 Vol.
2%
95–100
$1,056 Vol.
<1%
100+
$815 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 18 (ending approximately May 2, 2026) shows the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rate stabilizing at roughly 87 per 100,000 population nationwide, driving near-unanimous trader consensus (98.7% implied probability) for the 85–90 bin amid a moderate-to-severe 2025–2026 season—the third highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011. Declining national flu activity since the late-winter peak, confirmed by falling laboratory detections and FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer weekly admissions, has cemented this positioning as new cases taper off. Revisions remain possible, however, as recent-week rates are preliminary and often adjusted upward with delayed hospital reports; a surge in backfilled data could nudge the final figure into 90–95, while downward corrections are unlikely given historical patterns. Final FluView confirmation is due this week.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$14,539End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 18 (ending approximately May 2, 2026) shows the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rate stabilizing at roughly 87 per 100,000 population nationwide, driving near-unanimous trader consensus (98.7% implied probability) for the 85–90 bin amid a moderate-to-severe 2025–2026 season—the third highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011. Declining national flu activity since the late-winter peak, confirmed by falling laboratory detections and FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer weekly admissions, has cemented this positioning as new cases taper off. Revisions remain possible, however, as recent-week rates are preliminary and often adjusted upward with delayed hospital reports; a surge in backfilled data could nudge the final figure into 90–95, while downward corrections are unlikely given historical patterns. Final FluView confirmation is due this week.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$14,539End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 18 (ending approximately May 2, 2026) shows the cumulative laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rate stabilizing at roughly 87 per 100,000 population nationwide, driving near-unanimous trader consensus (98.7% implied probability) for the 85–90 bin amid a moderate-to-severe 2025–2026 season—the third highest cumulative rate since 2010–2011. Declining national flu activity since the late-winter peak, confirmed by falling laboratory detections and FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer weekly admissions, has cemented this positioning as new cases taper off. Revisions remain possible, however, as recent-week rates are preliminary and often adjusted upward with delayed hospital reports; a surge in backfilled data could nudge the final figure into 90–95, while downward corrections are unlikely given historical patterns. Final FluView confirmation is due this week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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