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icon for How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)

How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)

icon for How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)

How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)

0 84%

4 27.0%

2 19.0%

1 5%

Polymarket
NEW

0 84%

4 27.0%

2 19.0%

1 5%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$557 Vol.

66%

1

$23 Vol.

5%

2

$47 Vol.

10%

3

$80 Vol.

26%

4

$37 Vol.

27%

5

$35 Vol.

4%

6+

$72 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to zero major space weather events from May 10-16, reflecting NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) records showing no G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts through May 14. An M5.7 flare on May 10 produced only an R2-level blackout over the Atlantic, falling short of major criteria. Current low solar activity persists amid Solar Cycle 25's maximum, with stable sunspot regions unlikely to yield X1+ flares for stronger impacts. SWPC forecasts peak at G2 moderate geomagnetic conditions on May 15 from a corotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind, below the G3 threshold; traders price tail risks like unexpected coronal mass ejections into higher counts such as three events (19.3%), pending final Kp indices and alerts by May 16.

This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$850
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to zero major space weather events from May 10-16, reflecting NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) records showing no G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts through May 14. An M5.7 flare on May 10 produced only an R2-level blackout over the Atlantic, falling short of major criteria. Current low solar activity persists amid Solar Cycle 25's maximum, with stable sunspot regions unlikely to yield X1+ flares for stronger impacts. SWPC forecasts peak at G2 moderate geomagnetic conditions on May 15 from a corotating interaction region and high-speed solar wind, below the G3 threshold; traders price tail risks like unexpected coronal mass ejections into higher counts such as three events (19.3%), pending final Kp indices and alerts by May 16.

This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$850
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0" at 66%, followed by "4" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)" is "0" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.