NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known asteroids pose an impact risk to Earth in 2026, with recent safe flybys of small objects like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) and 2026 GD underscoring effective monitoring via telescopes such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. These cover over 90% of kilometer-class threats, while 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolides—typically from 15-25 meter near-Earth objects (NEOs)—are rare, occurring roughly once every 5-10 years based on CNEOS fireball data, the last major event being Chelyabinsk in 2013 (~500 kt). Trader consensus at 94% "No" reflects this low baseline annual probability (~1-5%), backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an undetected small bolide, though probability drops further as the year progresses without incidents; watch for quarterly NEO updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known asteroids pose an impact risk to Earth in 2026, with recent safe flybys of small objects like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) and 2026 GD underscoring effective monitoring via telescopes such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. These cover over 90% of kilometer-class threats, while 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolides—typically from 15-25 meter near-Earth objects (NEOs)—are rare, occurring roughly once every 5-10 years based on CNEOS fireball data, the last major event being Chelyabinsk in 2013 (~500 kt). Trader consensus at 94% "No" reflects this low baseline annual probability (~1-5%), backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an undetected small bolide, though probability drops further as the year progresses without incidents; watch for quarterly NEO updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,235End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known asteroids pose an impact risk to Earth in 2026, with recent safe flybys of small objects like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) and 2026 GD underscoring effective monitoring via telescopes such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. These cover over 90% of kilometer-class threats, while 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolides—typically from 15-25 meter near-Earth objects (NEOs)—are rare, occurring roughly once every 5-10 years based on CNEOS fireball data, the last major event being Chelyabinsk in 2013 (~500 kt). Trader consensus at 94% "No" reflects this low baseline annual probability (~1-5%), backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an undetected small bolide, though probability drops further as the year progresses without incidents; watch for quarterly NEO updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,235End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no known asteroids pose an impact risk to Earth in 2026, with recent safe flybys of small objects like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) and 2026 GD underscoring effective monitoring via telescopes such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. These cover over 90% of kilometer-class threats, while 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent bolides—typically from 15-25 meter near-Earth objects (NEOs)—are rare, occurring roughly once every 5-10 years based on CNEOS fireball data, the last major event being Chelyabinsk in 2013 (~500 kt). Trader consensus at 94% "No" reflects this low baseline annual probability (~1-5%), backed by real capital. Realistic challenges include an undetected small bolide, though probability drops further as the year progresses without incidents; watch for quarterly NEO updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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